{"punk":7684,"name":"CryptoPunk #7684","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/7684","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/7684.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Shadow Beard","Headband","Nerd Glasses"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-06","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-07T00:20:34.586Z","fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"estimate":{"eth":33.8407,"usd":75660,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.1462,"high_eth":36.7683,"low_usd":69636,"high_usd":82206},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.6662,"high_eth":39.9492,"low_usd":64091,"high_usd":89317},"sigma_log":0.083,"multiple_of_floor":1.1135,"n1_eth":32.3833,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-07T05:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":33.8407,"usd":75660,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.1462,"high_eth":36.7683,"low_usd":69636,"high_usd":82206},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.6662,"high_eth":39.9492,"low_usd":64091,"high_usd":89317},"sigma_log":0.083,"multiple_of_floor":1.1135,"n1_eth":32.3833,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T05:04:35.000Z","block":26360770,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":9,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2235.7745744284666,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T05:04:35.000Z","block":26360770,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":9,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.044,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":20,"date":"2021-02-22","block":11907756,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":23,"adjusted_eth":25.8638},{"eth":26.95,"date":"2021-03-04","block":11969852,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":83,"adjusted_eth":36.7434},{"eth":29.5,"date":"2021-03-15","block":12045356,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":63,"adjusted_eth":44.8252},{"eth":65,"date":"2021-08-06","block":12971894,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":109,"adjusted_eth":40.3133},{"eth":0.001,"date":"2021-08-18","block":13046987,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"below-half-floor","log_index":570,"adjusted_eth":0.0007}],"comparables":[{"eth":65,"date":"2025-08-25","punk":5273,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.9654,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":59,"date":"2025-08-06","punk":5273,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.2897,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":54.6,"date":"2025-05-10","punk":5273,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.0048,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":51.75,"date":"2025-05-01","punk":5273,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.759,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":48,"date":"2025-04-10","punk":5273,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.3228,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":44,"date":"2025-01-21","punk":8050,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.5684,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":53,"date":"2026-10-20","punk":1424,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":51.5085,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34,"date":"2026-09-30","punk":2298,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3157,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.044,"type_multiple":{"sales":773,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0656,"median_multiple":1.0656},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Shadow Beard","sales_12m":55},{"attribute":"Headband","sales_12m":48},{"attribute":"Nerd Glasses","sales_12m":64}],"summary":["Estimate 33.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.1 to 36.8 ETH, 2σ range 28.7 to 39.9 ETH, confidence High, as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 05:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-06.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (773 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/7684","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}