{"punk":7712,"name":"CryptoPunk #7712","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/7712","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/7712.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Goat","Cowboy Hat"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":66.7192,"usd":151695,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":46.0728,"high_eth":96.6177,"low_usd":104752,"high_usd":219673},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.8155,"high_eth":139.9145,"low_usd":72337,"high_usd":318113},"sigma_log":0.3703,"multiple_of_floor":2.1954,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":65.841,"usd":149698,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":45.4664,"high_eth":95.346,"low_usd":103374,"high_usd":216781},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.3967,"high_eth":138.0729,"low_usd":71384,"high_usd":313926},"sigma_log":0.3703,"multiple_of_floor":2.1954,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":67},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":102.4},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0761,"term":"attr:Goat","label":"Goat","sales_12m":38,"weighted_sales":16.8},{"pct":95.6,"beta":0.671,"term":"attr:Cowboy Hat","label":"Cowboy Hat","sales_12m":10,"weighted_sales":2.9}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[],"comparables":[{"eth":86.5,"date":"2025-03-14","punk":3698,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":67.5732,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":82,"date":"2025-01-07","punk":3698,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":66.4823,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.45,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":8233,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0156,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.53,"date":"2026-10-28","punk":8233,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.628,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":53,"date":"2026-10-20","punk":1424,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":50.8305,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":35.17,"date":"2026-10-03","punk":1241,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.9718,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-02","punk":2224,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.9991,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":34.4999,"date":"2026-09-25","punk":9142,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.711,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.723,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 66.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 46.1 to 96.6 ETH, 2σ range 31.8 to 140 ETH, confidence Low, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Goat -7%, Cowboy Hat +96%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/7712","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}