{"punk":7730,"name":"CryptoPunk #7730","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/7730","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/7730.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Mohawk Dark","Clown Nose"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":28.2793,"usd":64297,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":25.4663,"high_eth":31.403,"low_usd":57901,"high_usd":71399},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":22.9332,"high_eth":34.8718,"low_usd":52141,"high_usd":79285},"sigma_log":0.1048,"multiple_of_floor":0.9305,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":27.9071,"usd":63450,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":25.1311,"high_eth":30.9897,"low_usd":57139,"high_usd":70459},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":22.6313,"high_eth":34.4128,"low_usd":51455,"high_usd":78242},"sigma_log":0.1048,"multiple_of_floor":0.9305,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":102.4},{"pct":-7.6,"beta":-0.0795,"term":"attr:Mohawk Dark","label":"Mohawk Dark","sales_12m":53,"weighted_sales":13.6},{"pct":-6.4,"beta":-0.0656,"term":"attr:Clown Nose","label":"Clown Nose","sales_12m":25,"weighted_sales":6.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":1,"date":"2020-09-06","block":10809396,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":107,"adjusted_eth":34.0795},{"eth":14.5,"date":"2021-02-19","block":11888337,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":46,"adjusted_eth":34.3759},{"eth":21,"date":"2021-04-15","block":12242127,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":224,"adjusted_eth":32.3135},{"eth":23,"date":"2021-04-22","block":12286918,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":14,"adjusted_eth":35.5552},{"eth":16.49,"date":"2021-06-24","block":12693797,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":221,"adjusted_eth":33.6418}],"comparables":[{"eth":28,"date":"2026-04-18","punk":7807,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":31.3562,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.51,"date":"2026-04-13","punk":7807,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9114,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50,"date":"2026-03-10","punk":8056,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":50.3357,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.99,"date":"2026-10-16","punk":7608,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0129,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-10-11","punk":3739,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.9043,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-09-26","punk":1481,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1561,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.311,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":9787,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.6526,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":36,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":192,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0463,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.1353,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 28.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 25.5 to 31.4 ETH, 2σ range 22.9 to 34.9 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Mohawk Dark -8%, Clown Nose -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/7730","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}