{"punk":7839,"name":"CryptoPunk #7839","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/7839","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/7839.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Mole","Earring","Fedora","VR"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":37.7939,"usd":91578,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.5933,"high_eth":42.5198,"low_usd":81399,"high_usd":103029},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.8596,"high_eth":47.8365,"low_usd":72352,"high_usd":115912},"sigma_log":0.1178,"multiple_of_floor":1.2436,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":37.7939,"usd":91578,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.5933,"high_eth":42.5198,"low_usd":81399,"high_usd":103029},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.8596,"high_eth":47.8365,"low_usd":72352,"high_usd":115912},"sigma_log":0.1178,"multiple_of_floor":1.2436,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":25,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":25,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":45.99,"ask_usd":102823,"z":1.67,"z_text":"1.7σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2026-06-17T05:23:59.000Z","days_listed":142},"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-6.7,"beta":-0.0698,"term":"attr:Mole","label":"Mole","sales_12m":89,"weighted_sales":22.5},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6},{"pct":22.5,"beta":0.2029,"term":"attr:VR","label":"VR","sales_12m":24,"weighted_sales":3.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":60,"date":"2024-01-10","block":18976473,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":51,"adjusted_eth":33.7729},{"eth":50,"date":"2024-04-02","block":19570449,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":136,"adjusted_eth":36.1872},{"eth":44.99,"date":"2025-10-18","block":23606060,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":77,"adjusted_eth":32.0273},{"eth":36.25,"date":"2025-11-09","block":23759642,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":535,"adjusted_eth":32.4106}],"comparables":[{"eth":44.44,"date":"2026-01-20","punk":6012,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":49.579,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":27.62,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":3425,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.6018,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36.8,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":4241,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.4851,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.99,"date":"2026-09-10","punk":6669,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.5034,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37,"date":"2026-08-13","punk":6562,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.4486,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.19,"date":"2026-08-12","punk":6562,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7984,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.99,"date":"2026-07-30","punk":3425,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0584,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.869,"date":"2026-07-12","punk":2957,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.6655,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.1544,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Fedora","sales_12m":18}],"summary":["Estimate 37.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 33.6 to 42.5 ETH, 2σ range 29.9 to 47.8 ETH, confidence Low, as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 12:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Mole -7%, Earring -2%, VR +23%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/7839","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}