{"punk":784,"name":"CryptoPunk #784","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/784","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/784.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Silver Chain","Mohawk Thin","Medical Mask","3D Glasses"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":59.9622,"usd":136332,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":43.5097,"high_eth":82.6361,"low_usd":98925,"high_usd":187884},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.5715,"high_eth":113.8837,"low_usd":71782,"high_usd":258929},"sigma_log":0.3207,"multiple_of_floor":1.9731,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":59.173,"usd":134537,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":42.937,"high_eth":81.5484,"low_usd":97623,"high_usd":185411},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.1559,"high_eth":112.3847,"low_usd":70837,"high_usd":255521},"sigma_log":0.3207,"multiple_of_floor":1.9731,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":67},{"pct":-10.7,"beta":-0.1137,"term":"attr:Mohawk Thin","label":"Mohawk Thin","sales_12m":51,"weighted_sales":11.1},{"pct":76.1,"beta":0.5659,"term":"attr:3D Glasses","label":"3D Glasses","sales_12m":11,"weighted_sales":3.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":56,"date":"2021-04-13","block":12234071,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":151,"adjusted_eth":82.9353},{"eth":89.99,"date":"2021-07-31","block":12935256,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":111,"adjusted_eth":89.99},{"eth":150,"date":"2021-08-05","block":12964750,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":63,"adjusted_eth":101.2264},{"eth":200,"date":"2022-10-01","block":15649855,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":125,"adjusted_eth":95.2063},{"eth":70,"date":"2024-11-09","block":21152577,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":141,"adjusted_eth":79.2189}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.4,"date":"2026-10-04","punk":5635,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3627,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.32,"date":"2026-09-29","punk":5635,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9423,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.2,"date":"2026-09-29","punk":5635,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.9393,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.99,"date":"2026-07-02","punk":5656,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.5133,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-05-23","punk":1393,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5954,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-05-22","punk":7881,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.56,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.69,"date":"2025-11-27","punk":4173,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":32.4627,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31,"date":"2025-11-26","punk":4173,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":30.2929,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.6163,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Silver Chain","sales_12m":20},{"attribute":"Medical Mask","sales_12m":12}],"summary":["Estimate 60.0 ETH (beta), 1σ range 43.5 to 82.6 ETH, 2σ range 31.6 to 114 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Mohawk Thin -11%, 3D Glasses +76%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/784","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}