{"punk":7865,"name":"CryptoPunk #7865","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/7865","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/7865.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Luxurious Beard","Messy Hair","Eye Mask"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":40.5965,"usd":98369,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.3484,"high_eth":46.6238,"low_usd":85652,"high_usd":112973},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.7787,"high_eth":53.546,"low_usd":74579,"high_usd":129746},"sigma_log":0.1384,"multiple_of_floor":1.3359,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":40.5965,"usd":98369,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.3484,"high_eth":46.6238,"low_usd":85652,"high_usd":112973},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.7787,"high_eth":53.546,"low_usd":74579,"high_usd":129746},"sigma_log":0.1384,"multiple_of_floor":1.3359,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":41,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":41,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":19.8,"beta":0.1805,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":25.7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":30,"date":"2021-07-09","block":12796232,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":14,"adjusted_eth":49.3611},{"eth":88.5,"date":"2021-08-23","block":13081547,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":59,"adjusted_eth":39.7387},{"eth":87,"date":"2021-12-13","block":13798303,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":243,"adjusted_eth":41.9671},{"eth":92.95,"date":"2021-12-16","block":13818524,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":10,"adjusted_eth":45.9902},{"eth":93,"date":"2022-02-07","block":14161024,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":310,"adjusted_eth":40.4041},{"eth":50,"date":"2024-04-10","block":19625544,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":92,"adjusted_eth":37.997},{"eth":54.69,"date":"2024-04-29","block":19762228,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":87,"adjusted_eth":46.1803}],"comparables":[{"eth":38.9,"date":"2026-08-10","punk":2720,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.9659,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.65,"date":"2026-07-23","punk":2720,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.117,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40,"date":"2026-04-14","punk":8129,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":46.7718,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":54.69,"date":"2025-11-03","punk":8295,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":45.5725,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":49.99,"date":"2025-10-27","punk":9361,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.9537,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":59.6,"date":"2025-08-15","punk":2720,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.5908,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":57.69,"date":"2025-08-07","punk":2720,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.7219,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":52.499,"date":"2025-07-24","punk":9184,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.9153,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.2259,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Luxurious Beard","sales_12m":41},{"attribute":"Messy Hair","sales_12m":48},{"attribute":"Eye Mask","sales_12m":55}],"summary":["Estimate 40.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 35.3 to 46.6 ETH, 2σ range 30.8 to 53.5 ETH, confidence High, as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 07:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/7865","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}