{"punk":7876,"name":"CryptoPunk #7876","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/7876","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/7876.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Hot Lipstick","Mohawk","Clown Eyes Green"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":30.5824,"usd":74104,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.0321,"high_eth":32.2156,"low_usd":70347,"high_usd":78061},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.5604,"high_eth":33.9359,"low_usd":66781,"high_usd":82229},"sigma_log":0.052,"multiple_of_floor":1.0063,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.5824,"usd":74104,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.0321,"high_eth":32.2156,"low_usd":70347,"high_usd":78061},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.5604,"high_eth":33.9359,"low_usd":66781,"high_usd":82229},"sigma_log":0.052,"multiple_of_floor":1.0063,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":49,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":49,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4,"beta":0.0392,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":42.1},{"pct":-4.1,"beta":-0.0424,"term":"attr:Clown Eyes Green","label":"Clown Eyes Green","sales_12m":61,"weighted_sales":9.9}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.39,"date":"2017-07-08","block":3992615,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":4,"adjusted_eth":39.507},{"eth":0.25,"date":"2019-09-02","block":8472890,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":134,"adjusted_eth":25.325},{"eth":0.5,"date":"2020-01-04","block":9210775,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":26,"adjusted_eth":33.0326},{"eth":19.49,"date":"2021-03-26","block":12114113,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":21,"adjusted_eth":30.7689},{"eth":17.41,"date":"2021-04-08","block":12201186,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":3,"adjusted_eth":26.871},{"eth":21.99,"date":"2021-04-11","block":12220767,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":100,"adjusted_eth":33.8368},{"eth":54.99,"date":"2021-08-11","block":13006720,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":408,"adjusted_eth":35.8}],"comparables":[{"eth":28.994,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":3364,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9233,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.46,"date":"2026-10-28","punk":3364,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9322,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50.5,"date":"2026-08-23","punk":5541,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":47.9892,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":25.1,"date":"2026-04-17","punk":7981,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.4729,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.4,"date":"2026-03-08","punk":5757,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9921,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.8,"date":"2026-02-02","punk":8746,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2485,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46.69,"date":"2025-10-13","punk":8746,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5142,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":45,"date":"2025-10-10","punk":8746,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.5501,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0031,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Hot Lipstick","sales_12m":88},{"attribute":"Mohawk","sales_12m":73}],"summary":["Estimate 30.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.0 to 32.2 ETH, 2σ range 27.6 to 33.9 ETH, confidence High, as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 06:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +4%, Clown Eyes Green -4%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/7876","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}