{"punk":7923,"name":"CryptoPunk #7923","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/7923","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/7923.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Buck Teeth","Normal Beard Black","Earring","Mohawk Dark"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":30.5564,"usd":74041,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.8252,"high_eth":33.5556,"low_usd":67423,"high_usd":81308},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.3381,"high_eth":36.8492,"low_usd":61396,"high_usd":89289},"sigma_log":0.0936,"multiple_of_floor":1.0055,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.5564,"usd":74041,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.8252,"high_eth":33.5556,"low_usd":67423,"high_usd":81308},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.3381,"high_eth":36.8492,"low_usd":61396,"high_usd":89289},"sigma_log":0.0936,"multiple_of_floor":1.0055,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":36,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":36,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6},{"pct":-7.6,"beta":-0.0795,"term":"attr:Mohawk Dark","label":"Mohawk Dark","sales_12m":53,"weighted_sales":13.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":8,"date":"2020-12-31","block":11562552,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":41,"adjusted_eth":44.5275},{"eth":15,"date":"2021-01-19","block":11683617,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":148,"adjusted_eth":109.3165},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-03-09","block":14350957,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":105,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-03-09","block":14350957,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":109,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":82.95,"date":"2022-03-12","block":14368656,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":14,"adjusted_eth":35.8075},{"eth":87,"date":"2022-06-20","block":14998476,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":55,"adjusted_eth":38.5975}],"comparables":[{"eth":36.75,"date":"2025-11-03","punk":9498,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.6233,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":50,"date":"2024-12-04","punk":9498,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.1999,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":9585,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9696,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.35,"date":"2026-10-23","punk":8427,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.7725,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-10-11","punk":3739,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3298,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.311,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":9787,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0481,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35.75,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":2128,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.9542,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":5942,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.0715,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0582,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Buck Teeth","sales_12m":3},{"attribute":"Normal Beard Black","sales_12m":21}],"summary":["Estimate 30.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 27.8 to 33.6 ETH, 2σ range 25.3 to 36.8 ETH, confidence Low, as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 06:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Earring -2%, Mohawk Dark -8%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/7923","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}