{"punk":8116,"name":"CryptoPunk #8116","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8116","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8116.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Normal Beard","Mohawk","Cigarette"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":34.4717,"usd":83528,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.6351,"high_eth":37.5625,"low_usd":76654,"high_usd":91017},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.032,"high_eth":40.9305,"low_usd":70347,"high_usd":99178},"sigma_log":0.0859,"multiple_of_floor":1.1343,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":34.4717,"usd":83528,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.6351,"high_eth":37.5625,"low_usd":76654,"high_usd":91017},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.032,"high_eth":40.9305,"low_usd":70347,"high_usd":99178},"sigma_log":0.0859,"multiple_of_floor":1.1343,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","block":26355395,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":30,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","block":26355395,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":30,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-7.6,"beta":-0.0788,"term":"attr:Mohawk","label":"Mohawk","sales_12m":73,"weighted_sales":15.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":24,"date":"2021-03-16","block":12051955,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":333,"adjusted_eth":33.2282},{"eth":23.5,"date":"2021-03-19","block":12066728,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":93,"adjusted_eth":34.0241},{"eth":107,"date":"2021-11-23","block":13671036,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":35,"adjusted_eth":38.482},{"eth":50,"date":"2025-07-22","block":22974232,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":595,"adjusted_eth":31.9895},{"eth":49,"date":"2025-09-04","block":23290287,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":523,"adjusted_eth":31.0231},{"eth":49.39,"date":"2025-09-10","block":23330985,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":352,"adjusted_eth":32.2788}],"comparables":[{"eth":28.5,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":9132,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3964,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.49,"date":"2026-08-28","punk":9700,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":30.0182,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.49,"date":"2026-08-28","punk":9700,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9715,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.869,"date":"2026-07-12","punk":2957,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.6655,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.25,"date":"2026-07-03","punk":2957,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":31.1488,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42,"date":"2026-07-02","punk":3860,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.9243,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37.98,"date":"2026-06-27","punk":4689,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.5142,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-05-16","punk":4777,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3983,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0624,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Normal Beard","sales_12m":39},{"attribute":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110}],"summary":["Estimate 34.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.6 to 37.6 ETH, 2σ range 29.0 to 40.9 ETH, confidence High, as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 11:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Mohawk -8%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8116","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}