{"punk":8153,"name":"CryptoPunk #8153","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8153","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8153.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Goat","Stringy Hair","Clown Nose"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":29.336,"usd":71084,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.7026,"high_eth":32.2292,"low_usd":64703,"high_usd":78094},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.3056,"high_eth":35.4076,"low_usd":58894,"high_usd":85796},"sigma_log":0.0941,"multiple_of_floor":0.9653,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":29.336,"usd":71084,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.7026,"high_eth":32.2292,"low_usd":64703,"high_usd":78094},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.3056,"high_eth":35.4076,"low_usd":58894,"high_usd":85796},"sigma_log":0.0941,"multiple_of_floor":0.9653,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":30,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":30,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":50,"ask_usd":111789,"z":5.67,"z_text":"5.7σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2026-11-01T22:17:59.000Z","days_listed":4},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0762,"term":"attr:Goat","label":"Goat","sales_12m":37,"weighted_sales":16.7},{"pct":-9.4,"beta":-0.0983,"term":"attr:Stringy Hair","label":"Stringy Hair","sales_12m":96,"weighted_sales":25.2},{"pct":-6.4,"beta":-0.0656,"term":"attr:Clown Nose","label":"Clown Nose","sales_12m":25,"weighted_sales":6.1}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":9,"date":"2021-02-14","block":11851670,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":4,"adjusted_eth":33.1527},{"eth":49,"date":"2021-08-06","block":12968990,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":72,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":49.97,"date":"2021-08-08","block":12986914,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":61,"adjusted_eth":33.3756},{"eth":114.9,"date":"2021-09-24","block":13289863,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":15,"adjusted_eth":34.2334},{"eth":115,"date":"2021-10-05","block":13361861,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":37,"adjusted_eth":29.3932},{"eth":127.49,"date":"2021-10-17","block":13432375,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":103,"adjusted_eth":36.8992}],"comparables":[{"eth":34.45,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":4059,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.7922,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.2,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":9984,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5861,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.45,"date":"2026-08-05","punk":4059,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.1917,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.49,"date":"2026-07-26","punk":4059,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4221,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.101,"date":"2026-07-14","punk":4059,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.2075,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.8,"date":"2026-04-27","punk":9984,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3015,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.3,"date":"2026-01-02","punk":5674,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.6408,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35.34,"date":"2025-11-05","punk":1054,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.4322,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0989,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 29.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 26.7 to 32.2 ETH, 2σ range 24.3 to 35.4 ETH, confidence Low, as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 06:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Goat -7%, Stringy Hair -9%, Clown Nose -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8153","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}