{"punk":8178,"name":"CryptoPunk #8178","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8178","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8178.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Chinstrap","Headband"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":34.8711,"usd":79284,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.9275,"high_eth":38.0859,"low_usd":72591,"high_usd":86593},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.2326,"high_eth":41.5971,"low_usd":66464,"high_usd":94576},"sigma_log":0.0882,"multiple_of_floor":1.1475,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":34.4121,"usd":78240,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.5073,"high_eth":37.5846,"low_usd":71636,"high_usd":85453},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.8478,"high_eth":41.0496,"low_usd":65589,"high_usd":93331},"sigma_log":0.0882,"multiple_of_floor":1.1475,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":67},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":102.4},{"pct":-5.3,"beta":-0.054,"term":"attr:Chinstrap","label":"Chinstrap","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":19.4}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.49,"date":"2019-10-12","block":8728359,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":48,"adjusted_eth":58.7804},{"eth":19.99,"date":"2021-03-11","block":12017318,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":253,"adjusted_eth":28.5476},{"eth":24.9,"date":"2021-04-08","block":12201291,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":76,"adjusted_eth":37.9254},{"eth":30,"date":"2021-07-30","block":12930014,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":48,"adjusted_eth":34.7106},{"eth":69.69,"date":"2022-06-19","block":14988789,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":161,"adjusted_eth":31.3579},{"eth":77,"date":"2022-06-20","block":14994016,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":172,"adjusted_eth":33.7114},{"eth":85,"date":"2022-07-13","block":15134823,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":78,"adjusted_eth":32.7024},{"eth":77.5,"date":"2022-09-27","block":15625436,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":4,"adjusted_eth":35.2743},{"eth":0,"date":"2023-04-02","block":16962810,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":293,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":31.75,"date":"2024-10-12","block":20952389,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":265,"adjusted_eth":34.6248},{"eth":45,"date":"2024-12-02","block":21311793,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":26,"adjusted_eth":30.3747},{"eth":44.24,"date":"2024-12-04","block":21330963,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":71,"adjusted_eth":29.8618},{"eth":42.94,"date":"2024-12-14","block":21401302,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":171,"adjusted_eth":33.4573}],"comparables":[{"eth":34.59,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":8272,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5104,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35.6,"date":"2026-08-20","punk":4164,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.9418,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46.69,"date":"2025-04-26","punk":8716,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.838,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40,"date":"2025-02-01","punk":4164,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9152,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42.69,"date":"2025-01-24","punk":8716,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3102,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":2303,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.5442,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-10-25","punk":3662,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3157,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.15,"date":"2026-10-25","punk":3662,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.4851,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.0742,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Headband","sales_12m":48}],"summary":["Estimate 34.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.9 to 38.1 ETH, 2σ range 29.2 to 41.6 ETH, confidence High, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Chinstrap -5%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8178","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}