{"punk":8233,"name":"CryptoPunk #8233","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8233","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8233.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Goat","Cap","Small Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":34.5632,"usd":83749,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.7036,"high_eth":37.6808,"low_usd":76820,"high_usd":91304},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.0806,"high_eth":41.0795,"low_usd":70465,"high_usd":99539},"sigma_log":0.0864,"multiple_of_floor":1.1373,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":34.5632,"usd":83749,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.7036,"high_eth":37.6808,"low_usd":76820,"high_usd":91304},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.0806,"high_eth":41.0795,"low_usd":70465,"high_usd":99539},"sigma_log":0.0864,"multiple_of_floor":1.1373,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":37,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":37,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0762,"term":"attr:Goat","label":"Goat","sales_12m":37,"weighted_sales":16.7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.2,"date":"2017-07-02","block":3963958,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":46,"adjusted_eth":27.6273},{"eth":8.5,"date":"2021-02-14","block":11857727,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":178,"adjusted_eth":31.3109},{"eth":43,"date":"2021-08-03","block":12952599,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":39,"adjusted_eth":39.5991},{"eth":95,"date":"2021-08-26","block":13104082,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":249,"adjusted_eth":37.754},{"eth":95,"date":"2021-09-04","block":13159973,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":119,"adjusted_eth":29.1621},{"eth":109,"date":"2021-09-04","block":13160667,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":14,"adjusted_eth":33.4597},{"eth":30.53,"date":"2026-10-28","block":26293097,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":31.0366},{"eth":31.45,"date":"2026-11-02","block":26327123,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":178,"adjusted_eth":31.4293}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.49,"date":"2026-09-02","punk":4255,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3201,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.79,"date":"2026-06-28","punk":4255,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.6612,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.8,"date":"2025-11-18","punk":3123,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2427,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50.98,"date":"2025-08-22","punk":4447,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.618,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":44.49,"date":"2024-12-07","punk":1385,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.8182,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42.69,"date":"2024-11-30","punk":1385,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.4337,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":2303,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.9783,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":53,"date":"2026-10-20","punk":1424,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":51.5085,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.0651,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Cap","sales_12m":38},{"attribute":"Small Shades","sales_12m":44}],"summary":["Estimate 34.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.7 to 37.7 ETH, 2σ range 29.1 to 41.1 ETH, confidence High, as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 05:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Goat -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[{"sale_day":"2026-10-28","estimate_date":"2026-10-27","price_eth":30.53,"est_eth":36.2458,"low1":32.8931,"high1":39.9403,"low2":29.8504,"high2":44.0114,"z":-1.77,"confidence":"High","source":"native-buy","prospective":true,"model_version":"est-v2-202610","z_text":"1.8σ below the estimate"},{"sale_day":"2026-11-02","estimate_date":"2026-11-01","price_eth":31.45,"est_eth":35.2497,"low1":32.2032,"high1":38.5844,"low2":29.42,"high2":42.2346,"z":-1.26,"confidence":"High","source":"native-buy","prospective":true,"model_version":"est-v2-202610","z_text":"1.3σ below the estimate"}],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8233","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}