{"punk":8261,"name":"CryptoPunk #8261","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8261","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8261.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Purple Lipstick","Red Mohawk","Cigarette"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-06","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-07T00:20:34.586Z","fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"estimate":{"eth":31.1773,"usd":69705,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.5777,"high_eth":32.8635,"low_usd":66129,"high_usd":73475},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.0601,"high_eth":34.6408,"low_usd":62736,"high_usd":77449},"sigma_log":0.0527,"multiple_of_floor":1.0259,"n1_eth":30.6589,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-07T04:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":31.1773,"usd":69705,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.5777,"high_eth":32.8635,"low_usd":66129,"high_usd":73475},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.0601,"high_eth":34.6408,"low_usd":62736,"high_usd":77449},"sigma_log":0.0527,"multiple_of_floor":1.0259,"n1_eth":30.6589,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T04:04:35.000Z","block":26360471,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":12,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2235.7745744284666,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T04:04:35.000Z","block":26360471,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":12,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.4,"public_asks":405,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4,"beta":0.0393,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":41.8},{"pct":-2.2,"beta":-0.0225,"term":"attr:Cigarette","label":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110,"weighted_sales":14.1}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":79,"date":"2021-12-05","block":13743337,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":33,"adjusted_eth":34.9209},{"eth":65,"date":"2022-12-14","block":16179983,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":49,"adjusted_eth":30.6256}],"comparables":[{"eth":32.49,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":5931,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0403,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.485,"date":"2026-08-24","punk":6570,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3058,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-05-16","punk":7877,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.6213,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.9,"date":"2026-05-06","punk":7877,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3115,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":52,"date":"2026-03-05","punk":2889,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":52.9407,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40.9,"date":"2026-02-06","punk":3648,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.626,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.5,"date":"2025-11-19","punk":4700,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0162,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.7021,"date":"2025-09-19","punk":3995,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2732,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0168,"type_multiple":{"sales":439,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0088,"median_multiple":1.0088},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Purple Lipstick","sales_12m":66},{"attribute":"Red Mohawk","sales_12m":10}],"summary":["Estimate 31.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.6 to 32.9 ETH, 2σ range 28.1 to 34.6 ETH, confidence Low, as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 04:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-06.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (439 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +4%, Cigarette -2%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8261","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}