{"punk":8285,"name":"CryptoPunk #8285","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8285","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8285.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Normal Beard","Mohawk Dark","Cigarette"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":31.3022,"usd":75848,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.8439,"high_eth":33.9701,"low_usd":69891,"high_usd":82312},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.5786,"high_eth":36.8654,"low_usd":64402,"high_usd":89328},"sigma_log":0.0818,"multiple_of_floor":1.03,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T01:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":31.3022,"usd":75848,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.8439,"high_eth":33.9701,"low_usd":69891,"high_usd":82312},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.5786,"high_eth":36.8654,"low_usd":64402,"high_usd":89328},"sigma_log":0.0818,"multiple_of_floor":1.03,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T01:04:35.000Z","block":26352400,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":57,"stale":false,"label":"as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T01:04:35.000Z","block":26352400,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":57,"stale":false,"label":"as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-7.6,"beta":-0.0795,"term":"attr:Mohawk Dark","label":"Mohawk Dark","sales_12m":53,"weighted_sales":13.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.25,"date":"2019-11-23","block":8984860,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":11,"adjusted_eth":21.1042},{"eth":20.49,"date":"2021-02-25","block":11928994,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":242,"adjusted_eth":28.9624},{"eth":20.95,"date":"2021-02-27","block":11939951,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":28.9396},{"eth":23.25,"date":"2021-03-14","block":12039596,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":90,"adjusted_eth":33.6461},{"eth":46.5,"date":"2021-08-06","block":12968931,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":350,"adjusted_eth":28.8395},{"eth":63,"date":"2021-12-26","block":13878177,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":331,"adjusted_eth":27.7877},{"eth":68.89,"date":"2022-01-01","block":13920404,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":138,"adjusted_eth":31.3878},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-01-07","block":13955215,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":478,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":75.95,"date":"2022-01-25","block":14074841,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":203,"adjusted_eth":29.6103},{"eth":69,"date":"2022-03-02","block":14304889,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":118,"adjusted_eth":30.4341},{"eth":77.75,"date":"2022-03-12","block":14368919,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":31,"adjusted_eth":33.5628},{"eth":66.77,"date":"2022-11-12","block":15954687,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":298,"adjusted_eth":31.2416},{"eth":67.8,"date":"2023-01-15","block":16412525,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":105,"adjusted_eth":30.7988},{"eth":67.95,"date":"2023-01-26","block":16491773,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":90,"adjusted_eth":31.3306}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-10-11","punk":3739,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3298,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.98,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":5133,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.8425,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.99,"date":"2026-07-04","punk":3739,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.842,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37.98,"date":"2026-06-27","punk":4689,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.5142,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.25,"date":"2026-03-28","punk":1085,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.1467,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-03-19","punk":1085,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.5569,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-02-11","punk":9305,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.5502,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27,"date":"2025-12-25","punk":4689,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9051,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.034,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Normal Beard","sales_12m":39},{"attribute":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110}],"summary":["Estimate 31.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.8 to 34.0 ETH, 2σ range 26.6 to 36.9 ETH, confidence High, as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 01:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Mohawk Dark -8%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8285","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}