{"punk":8286,"name":"CryptoPunk #8286","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8286","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8286.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Headband","3D Glasses"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":44.8307,"usd":108628,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":36.8266,"high_eth":54.5745,"low_usd":89234,"high_usd":132238},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.2515,"high_eth":66.4361,"low_usd":73302,"high_usd":160980},"sigma_log":0.1967,"multiple_of_floor":1.4752,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":44.8307,"usd":108628,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":36.8266,"high_eth":54.5745,"low_usd":89234,"high_usd":132238},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.2515,"high_eth":66.4361,"low_usd":73302,"high_usd":160980},"sigma_log":0.1967,"multiple_of_floor":1.4752,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","block":26352999,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":49,"stale":false,"label":"as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","block":26352999,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":49,"stale":false,"label":"as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4,"beta":0.0392,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":42.1},{"pct":-3.7,"beta":-0.0376,"term":"attr:Headband","label":"Headband","sales_12m":48,"weighted_sales":5},{"pct":45.9,"beta":0.3777,"term":"attr:3D Glasses","label":"3D Glasses","sales_12m":11,"weighted_sales":0.9}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":115,"date":"2021-08-23","block":13082395,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":64,"adjusted_eth":51.6379},{"eth":107.37,"date":"2022-04-23","block":14639742,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":22,"adjusted_eth":54.3829}],"comparables":[{"eth":32.3383,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":8505,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.304,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.9,"date":"2026-09-07","punk":8450,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3291,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.79,"date":"2026-08-27","punk":2403,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7811,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.015,"date":"2026-08-07","punk":8505,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.1965,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-08-06","punk":2403,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.1038,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.501,"date":"2026-07-28","punk":2403,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.6353,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.47,"date":"2026-07-12","punk":6603,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4181,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-07-11","punk":4704,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9146,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.3793,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 44.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 36.8 to 54.6 ETH, 2σ range 30.3 to 66.4 ETH, confidence Low, as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 03:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +4%, Headband -4%, 3D Glasses +46%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8286","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}