{"punk":8302,"name":"CryptoPunk #8302","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8302","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8302.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Handlebars","Earring","Cap Forward","Big Shades"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":34.9542,"usd":79473,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.7263,"high_eth":38.5103,"low_usd":72134,"high_usd":87558},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.7966,"high_eth":42.4284,"low_usd":65473,"high_usd":96466},"sigma_log":0.0969,"multiple_of_floor":1.1502,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":34.4941,"usd":78427,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.3087,"high_eth":38.0034,"low_usd":71184,"high_usd":86406},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.4176,"high_eth":41.8699,"low_usd":64611,"high_usd":95197},"sigma_log":0.0969,"multiple_of_floor":1.1502,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":38,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":38,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":40.99,"ask_usd":99322,"z":1.64,"z_text":"1.6σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2023-07-25T15:31:47.000Z","days_listed":1199},"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":67},{"pct":-6.1,"beta":-0.0634,"term":"attr:Handlebars","label":"Handlebars","sales_12m":33,"weighted_sales":11.8},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":306,"weighted_sales":71.1}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.25,"date":"2019-09-08","block":8506365,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":16,"adjusted_eth":24.9917},{"eth":4,"date":"2020-10-09","block":11022108,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":89,"adjusted_eth":26.6578},{"eth":5.99,"date":"2020-12-22","block":11506225,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":7,"adjusted_eth":44.91},{"eth":32,"date":"2021-04-14","block":12234944,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":188,"adjusted_eth":47.3916},{"eth":37.99,"date":"2021-07-15","block":12834500,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":285,"adjusted_eth":57.8335},{"eth":52,"date":"2023-06-27","block":17571356,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":3,"adjusted_eth":32.4892}],"comparables":[{"eth":30.6,"date":"2026-07-19","punk":8992,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.6869,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":33.99,"date":"2026-04-17","punk":768,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.05,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":42.5,"date":"2025-10-18","punk":8992,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8565,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":47,"date":"2025-10-01","punk":8992,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8061,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-10-29","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0306,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-14","punk":3378,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.629,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-10-11","punk":3739,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.9043,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42.5,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":7998,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.3023,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0766,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Cap Forward","sales_12m":24},{"attribute":"Big Shades","sales_12m":81}],"summary":["Estimate 35.0 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.7 to 38.5 ETH, 2σ range 28.8 to 42.4 ETH, confidence Low, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Handlebars -6%, Earring -2%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8302","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}