{"punk":8312,"name":"CryptoPunk #8312","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8312","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8312.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Frown","Earring","Purple Hair"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-06","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-07T00:20:34.586Z","fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"estimate":{"eth":33.0678,"usd":73932,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.5047,"high_eth":35.8463,"low_usd":68202,"high_usd":80144},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.1402,"high_eth":38.8583,"low_usd":62915,"high_usd":86878},"sigma_log":0.0807,"multiple_of_floor":1.0881,"n1_eth":32.3833,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-07T02:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":33.0678,"usd":73932,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.5047,"high_eth":35.8463,"low_usd":68202,"high_usd":80144},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.1402,"high_eth":38.8583,"low_usd":62915,"high_usd":86878},"sigma_log":0.0807,"multiple_of_floor":1.0881,"n1_eth":32.3833,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T02:04:35.000Z","block":26359875,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":19,"stale":false,"label":"as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2235.7745744284666,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T02:04:35.000Z","block":26359875,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":19,"stale":false,"label":"as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.044,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-2.3,"beta":-0.0231,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":71}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.35,"date":"2019-07-19","block":8182425,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":11,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":0.53,"date":"2020-01-07","block":9231992,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":163,"adjusted_eth":29.2849},{"eth":0.54,"date":"2020-01-07","block":9232667,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":113,"adjusted_eth":29.8375}],"comparables":[{"eth":43.6849,"date":"2025-03-24","punk":2672,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7604,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":40,"date":"2025-03-23","punk":2672,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3976,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-04-10","punk":9110,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.5723,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.1,"date":"2026-01-03","punk":7917,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.4677,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31,"date":"2025-11-22","punk":7158,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":31.5186,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34,"date":"2025-11-07","punk":7988,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9496,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42,"date":"2025-10-22","punk":6138,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.7277,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":52.5,"date":"2025-08-21","punk":1794,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.3113,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0209,"type_multiple":{"sales":773,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0656,"median_multiple":1.0656},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Frown","sales_12m":40},{"attribute":"Purple Hair","sales_12m":6}],"summary":["Estimate 33.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.5 to 35.8 ETH, 2σ range 28.1 to 38.9 ETH, confidence Low, as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 02:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-06.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (773 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Earring -2%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8312","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}