{"punk":8317,"name":"CryptoPunk #8317","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8317","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8317.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Luxurious Beard","Cowboy Hat","Classic Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":74.63,"usd":169681,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":48.7838,"high_eth":114.1697,"low_usd":110916,"high_usd":259579},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.8888,"high_eth":174.658,"low_usd":72503,"high_usd":397107},"sigma_log":0.4251,"multiple_of_floor":2.4557,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":73.6477,"usd":167447,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":48.1417,"high_eth":112.667,"low_usd":109456,"high_usd":256163},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.4691,"high_eth":172.3591,"low_usd":71549,"high_usd":391880},"sigma_log":0.4251,"multiple_of_floor":2.4557,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":34,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":34,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":67},{"pct":95.6,"beta":0.671,"term":"attr:Cowboy Hat","label":"Cowboy Hat","sales_12m":10,"weighted_sales":2.9}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":12,"date":"2021-01-27","block":11739885,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":133,"adjusted_eth":72.2651}],"comparables":[{"eth":99.99,"date":"2026-07-01","punk":5008,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":96.7323,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":107.5,"date":"2026-01-21","punk":3077,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":118.3526,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":54.69,"date":"2025-11-03","punk":8295,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":44.9727,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":55,"date":"2025-04-09","punk":3713,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.8106,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42,"date":"2025-02-11","punk":3713,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":34.1535,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.5,"date":"2024-11-30","punk":5710,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.3629,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":49.69,"date":"2024-11-30","punk":3461,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.2551,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":49.02,"date":"2024-11-21","punk":7280,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.0053,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.8351,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Luxurious Beard","sales_12m":41},{"attribute":"Classic Shades","sales_12m":64}],"summary":["Estimate 74.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 48.8 to 114 ETH, 2σ range 31.9 to 175 ETH, confidence Low, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Cowboy Hat +96%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8317","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}