{"punk":8326,"name":"CryptoPunk #8326","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8326","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8326.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Black Lipstick","Earring","Mohawk Thin","Green Eye Shadow"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":31.9058,"usd":77310,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.1243,"high_eth":33.7926,"low_usd":72994,"high_usd":81882},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.4423,"high_eth":35.791,"low_usd":68918,"high_usd":86725},"sigma_log":0.0575,"multiple_of_floor":1.0499,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":31.9058,"usd":77310,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.1243,"high_eth":33.7926,"low_usd":72994,"high_usd":81882},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.4423,"high_eth":35.791,"low_usd":68918,"high_usd":86725},"sigma_log":0.0575,"multiple_of_floor":1.0499,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":38,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":38,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":{"ask_eth":126.5,"ask_usd":282825,"z":23.96,"z_text":"24.0σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2021-10-19T22:29:27.000Z","days_listed":1843},"argument":{"cell":"Female 4+","terms":[{"pct":4,"beta":0.0392,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":42.1}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 4+","seen":{"n":135,"cover1":0.6,"cover2":0.815,"bias_pct":-0.9,"within10":0.763,"within25":0.933,"MdALE_pct":4.5},"thin":false,"sigma":0.054,"selection":{"n":177,"cover1":0.712,"cover2":0.921,"bias_pct":-0.5,"within10":0.819,"within25":0.966,"MdALE_pct":3.4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.35,"date":"2017-07-08","block":3990710,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":12,"adjusted_eth":35.455},{"eth":0.57,"date":"2020-01-04","block":9215701,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":174,"adjusted_eth":37.6572},{"eth":0.95,"date":"2020-07-04","block":10395479,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":186,"adjusted_eth":32.8074},{"eth":15,"date":"2021-05-22","block":12481305,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":132,"adjusted_eth":29.9901},{"eth":70,"date":"2021-08-23","block":13082950,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":22,"adjusted_eth":31.4317},{"eth":86,"date":"2021-09-16","block":13233491,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":63,"adjusted_eth":25.6229},{"eth":123.99,"date":"2021-10-01","block":13332791,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":59,"adjusted_eth":30.2655},{"eth":103.25,"date":"2021-10-14","block":13416630,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":4,"adjusted_eth":29.0534},{"eth":106,"date":"2021-10-15","block":13423216,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":331,"adjusted_eth":30.6794}],"comparables":[{"eth":31.8,"date":"2026-05-16","punk":6379,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.4362,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":27.5,"date":"2026-01-19","punk":6674,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8181,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":27.7,"date":"2026-01-09","punk":6379,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.8486,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":75,"date":"2025-08-10","punk":3961,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.9751,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":33.8,"date":"2026-11-03","punk":1721,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.7889,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.5,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":4075,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2301,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.6,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":4075,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0325,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.74,"date":"2026-09-20","punk":4075,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4925,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0392,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Black Lipstick","sales_12m":95},{"attribute":"Earring","sales_12m":303},{"attribute":"Mohawk Thin","sales_12m":51},{"attribute":"Green Eye Shadow","sales_12m":32}],"summary":["Estimate 31.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.1 to 33.8 ETH, 2σ range 28.4 to 35.8 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 05:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +4%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8326","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}