{"punk":8364,"name":"CryptoPunk #8364","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8364","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8364.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Purple Lipstick","Stringy Hair","Welding Goggles"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":38.7364,"usd":88072,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.112,"high_eth":43.9877,"low_usd":77558,"high_usd":100012},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.0397,"high_eth":49.9508,"low_usd":68299,"high_usd":113569},"sigma_log":0.1271,"multiple_of_floor":1.2746,"n1_eth":30.7154,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":38.2265,"usd":86913,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.663,"high_eth":43.4087,"low_usd":76537,"high_usd":98695},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.6443,"high_eth":49.2933,"low_usd":67400,"high_usd":112075},"sigma_log":0.1271,"multiple_of_floor":1.2746,"n1_eth":30.3111,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":-2.5,"beta":-0.0256,"term":"attr:Stringy Hair","label":"Stringy Hair","sales_12m":99,"weighted_sales":12.9},{"pct":29.4,"beta":0.2577,"term":"attr:Welding Goggles","label":"Welding Goggles","sales_12m":4,"weighted_sales":0.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":49.99,"date":"2024-12-01","block":21310931,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":204,"adjusted_eth":34.8732},{"eth":51,"date":"2025-08-23","block":23206922,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":1282,"adjusted_eth":30.6511}],"comparables":[{"eth":32.41,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":2876,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9715,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.8,"date":"2026-08-27","punk":2876,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3983,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-08-27","punk":2876,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.6588,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.18,"date":"2026-08-16","punk":2876,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.99,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-07-18","punk":2876,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.5932,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":52.5,"date":"2026-07-07","punk":1470,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":48.535,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.75,"date":"2026-06-16","punk":628,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.1187,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40.9,"date":"2026-02-06","punk":3648,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.0781,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.232,"type_multiple":{"sales":442,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0107,"median_multiple":1.0107},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Purple Lipstick","sales_12m":67}],"summary":["Estimate 38.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 34.1 to 44.0 ETH, 2σ range 30.0 to 50.0 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Stringy Hair -3%, Welding Goggles +29%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8364","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}