{"punk":8381,"name":"CryptoPunk #8381","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8381","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8381.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Muttonchops","Bandana"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":31.5018,"usd":76331,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.0453,"high_eth":34.1661,"low_usd":70379,"high_usd":82787},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.7803,"high_eth":37.0558,"low_usd":64891,"high_usd":89789},"sigma_log":0.0812,"multiple_of_floor":1.0366,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":31.5018,"usd":76331,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.0453,"high_eth":34.1661,"low_usd":70379,"high_usd":82787},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.7803,"high_eth":37.0558,"low_usd":64891,"high_usd":89789},"sigma_log":0.0812,"multiple_of_floor":1.0366,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":-9.3,"beta":-0.0973,"term":"attr:Muttonchops","label":"Muttonchops","sales_12m":48,"weighted_sales":15.7},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0357,"term":"attr:Bandana","label":"Bandana","sales_12m":63,"weighted_sales":14.1}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":21.5,"date":"2021-02-22","block":11903896,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":264,"adjusted_eth":27.8036},{"eth":21.9,"date":"2021-02-22","block":11908986,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":109,"adjusted_eth":28.3209},{"eth":19.5,"date":"2021-07-20","block":12866433,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":254,"adjusted_eth":30.0053},{"eth":88,"date":"2021-09-15","block":13232886,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":65,"adjusted_eth":32.0278},{"eth":60,"date":"2022-02-09","block":14168820,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":205,"adjusted_eth":27.2353},{"eth":72.95,"date":"2022-02-13","block":14198884,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":23,"adjusted_eth":30.4987},{"eth":78.99,"date":"2022-06-28","block":15039941,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":136,"adjusted_eth":36.125},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2024-05-24","block":19939819,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":35,"adjusted_eth":31.8245},{"eth":25,"date":"2024-06-20","block":20130390,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":73,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":38.9,"date":"2024-11-15","block":21194448,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":270,"adjusted_eth":31.118},{"eth":38.66,"date":"2025-03-03","block":21963553,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":299,"adjusted_eth":32.6536},{"eth":48.5,"date":"2025-05-13","block":22475232,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":66,"adjusted_eth":30.713},{"eth":49.88,"date":"2025-05-14","block":22479163,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":27,"adjusted_eth":31.9127}],"comparables":[{"eth":38.85,"date":"2025-10-26","punk":8869,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2731,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":60,"date":"2025-08-02","punk":9225,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.7729,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":49.84,"date":"2025-05-26","punk":6639,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.371,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46,"date":"2025-05-11","punk":6639,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1692,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":3391,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9803,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.5,"date":"2026-10-25","punk":9404,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.2116,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-14","punk":3378,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0508,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":36,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":2235,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.4737,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.0277,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 31.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.0 to 34.2 ETH, 2σ range 26.8 to 37.1 ETH, confidence High, as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 07:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Muttonchops -9%, Bandana -4%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8381","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}