{"punk":8393,"name":"CryptoPunk #8393","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8393","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8393.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Smile","Crazy Hair","Cigarette"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":43.6485,"usd":105764,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":36.8502,"high_eth":51.7009,"low_usd":89291,"high_usd":125276},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.1107,"high_eth":61.239,"low_usd":75384,"high_usd":148387},"sigma_log":0.1693,"multiple_of_floor":1.4363,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T01:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":43.6485,"usd":105764,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":36.8502,"high_eth":51.7009,"low_usd":89291,"high_usd":125276},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.1107,"high_eth":61.239,"low_usd":75384,"high_usd":148387},"sigma_log":0.1693,"multiple_of_floor":1.4363,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T01:04:35.000Z","block":26352400,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":59,"stale":false,"label":"as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T01:04:35.000Z","block":26352400,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":59,"stale":false,"label":"as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":17,"beta":0.1572,"term":"attr:Smile","label":"Smile","sales_12m":21,"weighted_sales":7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":27,"date":"2021-03-04","block":11969808,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":216,"adjusted_eth":36.8116},{"eth":58.69,"date":"2021-07-31","block":12936221,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":55,"adjusted_eth":59.4728},{"eth":65,"date":"2021-08-05","block":12965697,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":52,"adjusted_eth":44.4498},{"eth":85,"date":"2021-08-05","block":12966051,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":161,"adjusted_eth":58.1267},{"eth":169,"date":"2021-09-29","block":13318768,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":37,"adjusted_eth":47.7759},{"eth":93,"date":"2022-11-19","block":16000700,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":94,"adjusted_eth":42.8547},{"eth":96,"date":"2022-12-29","block":16287598,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":183,"adjusted_eth":44.5683}],"comparables":[{"eth":161.5,"date":"2026-09-04","punk":1839,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":159.6612,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40.5,"date":"2026-08-08","punk":8353,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.2234,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42,"date":"2026-06-27","punk":8353,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.2732,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36.89,"date":"2026-03-13","punk":4790,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.3364,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29,"date":"2026-03-04","punk":4790,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5246,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40,"date":"2026-02-06","punk":5655,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.71,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.1,"date":"2026-01-03","punk":7917,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.4677,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":45,"date":"2025-09-03","punk":4135,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.4966,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.2984,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Crazy Hair","sales_12m":59},{"attribute":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110}],"summary":["Estimate 43.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 36.9 to 51.7 ETH, 2σ range 31.1 to 61.2 ETH, confidence Low, as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 01:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Smile +17%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8393","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}