{"punk":8407,"name":"CryptoPunk #8407","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8407","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8407.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Normal Beard","Fedora","Cigarette","VR"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":46.7369,"usd":113247,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":38.1178,"high_eth":57.3049,"low_usd":92363,"high_usd":138854},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.0882,"high_eth":70.2625,"low_usd":75329,"high_usd":170252},"sigma_log":0.2039,"multiple_of_floor":1.5379,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":46.7369,"usd":113247,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":38.1178,"high_eth":57.3049,"low_usd":92363,"high_usd":138854},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.0882,"high_eth":70.2625,"low_usd":75329,"high_usd":170252},"sigma_log":0.2039,"multiple_of_floor":1.5379,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":22.5,"beta":0.2029,"term":"attr:VR","label":"VR","sales_12m":24,"weighted_sales":3.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":1.5,"date":"2020-01-04","block":9210868,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":4,"adjusted_eth":99.0978},{"eth":120,"date":"2021-08-06","block":12968316,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":74.4245},{"eth":113,"date":"2022-01-31","block":14112741,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":60,"adjusted_eth":40.9061},{"eth":101,"date":"2022-02-03","block":14133612,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":19,"adjusted_eth":44.5162},{"eth":114.99,"date":"2022-02-07","block":14159406,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":61,"adjusted_eth":49.9578},{"eth":100,"date":"2022-05-12","block":14759061,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":53,"adjusted_eth":60.8408},{"eth":100,"date":"2025-10-27","block":23669151,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":221,"adjusted_eth":77.9231}],"comparables":[{"eth":57,"date":"2026-07-21","punk":9558,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":54.1322,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37.98,"date":"2026-06-27","punk":4689,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.5142,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37.25,"date":"2026-04-09","punk":6530,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.444,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27,"date":"2025-12-25","punk":4689,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9051,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36.25,"date":"2025-11-09","punk":7839,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.4106,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":54,"date":"2025-10-31","punk":8530,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":44.365,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":44.99,"date":"2025-10-18","punk":7839,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0273,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":45,"date":"2025-09-28","punk":8682,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7617,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.3668,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Normal Beard","sales_12m":39},{"attribute":"Fedora","sales_12m":18},{"attribute":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110}],"summary":["Estimate 46.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 38.1 to 57.3 ETH, 2σ range 31.1 to 70.3 ETH, confidence Low, as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 07:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, VR +23%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8407","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}