{"punk":8409,"name":"CryptoPunk #8409","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8409","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8409.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Muttonchops","Shaved Head","Eye Patch"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-06","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-07T00:20:34.586Z","fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"estimate":{"eth":28.4854,"usd":63687,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":25.7096,"high_eth":31.5609,"low_usd":57481,"high_usd":70563},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":23.2042,"high_eth":34.9685,"low_usd":51879,"high_usd":78182},"sigma_log":0.1025,"multiple_of_floor":0.9373,"n1_eth":32.3833,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-07T01:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":28.4854,"usd":63687,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":25.7096,"high_eth":31.5609,"low_usd":57481,"high_usd":70563},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":23.2042,"high_eth":34.9685,"low_usd":51879,"high_usd":78182},"sigma_log":0.1025,"multiple_of_floor":0.9373,"n1_eth":32.3833,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T01:04:35.000Z","block":26359575,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":11,"stale":false,"label":"as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2235.7745744284666,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T01:04:35.000Z","block":26359575,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":11,"stale":false,"label":"as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.044,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-9.2,"beta":-0.0964,"term":"attr:Muttonchops","label":"Muttonchops","sales_12m":48,"weighted_sales":15.6},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0758,"term":"attr:Shaved Head","label":"Shaved Head","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":12.4}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":2.9,"date":"2020-09-26","block":10940702,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":87,"adjusted_eth":29.377},{"eth":13.54,"date":"2021-02-20","block":11896913,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":69,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":14.79,"date":"2021-02-21","block":11902271,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":107,"adjusted_eth":22.4734},{"eth":35.5,"date":"2021-08-05","block":12963281,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":349,"adjusted_eth":24.2764},{"eth":40,"date":"2021-08-05","block":12966733,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":383,"adjusted_eth":27.3537},{"eth":65,"date":"2021-12-03","block":13735326,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"twin-of-nominal-24h","log_index":45,"adjusted_eth":29.9295},{"eth":0,"date":"2021-12-03","block":13735852,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":252,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":48.95,"date":"2023-11-06","block":18516271,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":185,"adjusted_eth":30.4024},{"eth":38.5,"date":"2024-05-07","block":19821213,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":269,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":19.42,"date":"2024-08-06","block":20466673,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":413,"adjusted_eth":26.8383},{"eth":37.1999,"date":"2024-11-28","block":21286422,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":28,"adjusted_eth":28.3477}],"comparables":[{"eth":30,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":3391,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9803,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.49,"date":"2026-09-05","punk":7377,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":31.91,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.9,"date":"2026-02-05","punk":7377,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.39,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.9849,"date":"2026-01-16","punk":7377,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.5964,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29,"date":"2026-01-03","punk":6953,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2079,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.535,"date":"2025-12-09","punk":7377,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":30.7387,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.75,"date":"2025-12-08","punk":7377,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0366,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36.99,"date":"2025-11-26","punk":8671,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.6284,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.1283,"type_multiple":{"sales":773,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0656,"median_multiple":1.0656},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Eye Patch","sales_12m":74}],"summary":["Estimate 28.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 25.7 to 31.6 ETH, 2σ range 23.2 to 35.0 ETH, confidence High, as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 01:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-06.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (773 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Muttonchops -9%, Shaved Head -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8409","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}