{"punk":8427,"name":"CryptoPunk #8427","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8427","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8427.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Normal Beard Black","Earring","Peak Spike","Eye Patch"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":31.1496,"usd":75478,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.4372,"high_eth":34.1207,"low_usd":68906,"high_usd":82677},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.9609,"high_eth":37.3753,"low_usd":62905,"high_usd":90563},"sigma_log":0.0911,"multiple_of_floor":1.025,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":31.1496,"usd":75478,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.4372,"high_eth":34.1207,"low_usd":68906,"high_usd":82677},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.9609,"high_eth":37.3753,"low_usd":62905,"high_usd":90563},"sigma_log":0.0911,"multiple_of_floor":1.025,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":34,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":34,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":31.44,"ask_usd":70293,"z":0.1,"z_text":"0.1σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2026-10-23T16:07:59.000Z","days_listed":13},"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6},{"pct":-5.8,"beta":-0.0603,"term":"attr:Peak Spike","label":"Peak Spike","sales_12m":41,"weighted_sales":14.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":6,"date":"2020-12-22","block":11506225,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":283,"adjusted_eth":45.585},{"eth":15.99,"date":"2021-02-17","block":11876380,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":56,"adjusted_eth":37.728},{"eth":36.5,"date":"2024-04-22","block":19712117,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":325,"adjusted_eth":28.8113},{"eth":37.89,"date":"2025-10-24","block":23645319,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":54,"adjusted_eth":30.31},{"eth":29.35,"date":"2026-10-23","block":26256374,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":87,"adjusted_eth":28.7725}],"comparables":[{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":9585,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9696,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":28.79,"date":"2026-03-21","punk":2124,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.71,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":28.4,"date":"2026-03-13","punk":2124,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2834,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":32.97,"date":"2025-11-14","punk":2124,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.7349,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":51.5,"date":"2025-10-09","punk":2835,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3031,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":42,"date":"2024-11-25","punk":986,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.8652,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-10-29","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4444,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.5,"date":"2026-10-25","punk":9404,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.2116,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0389,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Normal Beard Black","sales_12m":21},{"attribute":"Eye Patch","sales_12m":74}],"summary":["Estimate 31.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.4 to 34.1 ETH, 2σ range 26.0 to 37.4 ETH, confidence Low, as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 10:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Earring -2%, Peak Spike -6%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[{"sale_day":"2026-10-23","estimate_date":"2026-10-22","price_eth":29.35,"est_eth":32.7106,"low1":29.9106,"high1":35.7726,"low2":27.3504,"high2":39.1212,"z":-1.21,"confidence":"Low","source":"native-buy","prospective":true,"model_version":"est-v2-202610","z_text":"1.2σ below the estimate"}],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8427","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}