{"punk":843,"name":"CryptoPunk #843","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/843","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/843.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Purple Lipstick","Earring","Pilot Helmet","Cigarette"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":58.2597,"usd":141168,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":42.0859,"high_eth":80.6491,"low_usd":101978,"high_usd":195419},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.4022,"high_eth":111.6429,"low_usd":73667,"high_usd":270520},"sigma_log":0.3252,"multiple_of_floor":1.9171,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":58.2597,"usd":141168,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":42.0859,"high_eth":80.6491,"low_usd":101978,"high_usd":195419},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.4022,"high_eth":111.6429,"low_usd":73667,"high_usd":270520},"sigma_log":0.3252,"multiple_of_floor":1.9171,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":31,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":31,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 4+","terms":[{"pct":4,"beta":0.0392,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":42.1},{"pct":86.8,"beta":0.6246,"term":"attr:Pilot Helmet","label":"Pilot Helmet","sales_12m":5,"weighted_sales":1.5},{"pct":-2.2,"beta":-0.0225,"term":"attr:Cigarette","label":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110,"weighted_sales":14.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 4+","seen":{"n":135,"cover1":0.6,"cover2":0.815,"bias_pct":-0.9,"within10":0.763,"within25":0.933,"MdALE_pct":4.5},"thin":false,"sigma":0.054,"selection":{"n":177,"cover1":0.712,"cover2":0.921,"bias_pct":-0.5,"within10":0.819,"within25":0.966,"MdALE_pct":3.4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":1.6,"date":"2017-07-17","block":4036445,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":32,"adjusted_eth":131.4162},{"eth":0.502,"date":"2017-09-20","block":4294417,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":35,"adjusted_eth":117.3522},{"eth":150,"date":"2021-03-17","block":12057575,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":89,"adjusted_eth":203.5954},{"eth":102.99,"date":"2021-05-29","block":12532166,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":358,"adjusted_eth":204.5664},{"eth":110,"date":"2023-03-29","block":16936041,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":335,"adjusted_eth":50.9977},{"eth":69,"date":"2024-11-15","block":21193562,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":374,"adjusted_eth":55.1964},{"eth":90.1,"date":"2025-09-03","block":23284222,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":177,"adjusted_eth":57.0564}],"comparables":[{"eth":52,"date":"2026-03-05","punk":2889,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":52.9407,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":28.88,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":874,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8017,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":88,"date":"2026-10-22","punk":4405,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":85.5236,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":1452,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2838,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.49,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":5931,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0403,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.42,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":4065,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3806,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35.6,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":8674,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.3606,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.05,"date":"2026-08-29","punk":5677,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5521,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.6414,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Purple Lipstick","sales_12m":66},{"attribute":"Earring","sales_12m":303}],"summary":["Estimate 58.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 42.1 to 80.6 ETH, 2σ range 30.4 to 112 ETH, confidence Low, as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 06:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +4%, Pilot Helmet +87%, Cigarette -2%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/843","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}