{"punk":8431,"name":"CryptoPunk #8431","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8431","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8431.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Purple Lipstick","Blonde Bob","Clown Nose"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":29.6816,"usd":71921,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.1056,"high_eth":31.3459,"low_usd":68102,"high_usd":75954},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.6133,"high_eth":33.1036,"low_usd":64486,"high_usd":80213},"sigma_log":0.0546,"multiple_of_floor":0.9767,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":29.6816,"usd":71921,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.1056,"high_eth":31.3459,"low_usd":68102,"high_usd":75954},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.6133,"high_eth":33.1036,"low_usd":64486,"high_usd":80213},"sigma_log":0.0546,"multiple_of_floor":0.9767,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":34,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":34,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":405,"punk":6263}},"listing":{"ask_eth":150,"ask_usd":335366,"z":29.67,"z_text":"29.7σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2023-02-07T12:03:11.000Z","days_listed":1367},"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4,"beta":0.0392,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":42.1},{"pct":-7,"beta":-0.0723,"term":"attr:Clown Nose","label":"Clown Nose","sales_12m":25,"weighted_sales":4.9}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.7,"date":"2019-04-06","block":7516192,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":3,"adjusted_eth":62.5676},{"eth":0.85,"date":"2019-05-23","block":7816511,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":57,"adjusted_eth":60.0733},{"eth":28.95,"date":"2021-02-17","block":11871760,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":85,"adjusted_eth":68.3067},{"eth":70,"date":"2021-12-03","block":13734196,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":3,"adjusted_eth":32.2318},{"eth":81.99,"date":"2021-12-03","block":13734638,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":78,"adjusted_eth":37.7527}],"comparables":[{"eth":31.721,"date":"2026-10-02","punk":4351,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.221,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.1917,"date":"2025-10-27","punk":1738,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5394,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":53.84,"date":"2025-07-31","punk":6365,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4653,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":47,"date":"2025-07-20","punk":4398,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2292,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.99,"date":"2025-06-18","punk":7703,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.355,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40.7,"date":"2025-05-06","punk":4398,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.2751,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42.3,"date":"2025-04-03","punk":6365,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1902,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36.9949,"date":"2025-03-13","punk":7703,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2856,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.033,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Purple Lipstick","sales_12m":66},{"attribute":"Blonde Bob","sales_12m":4}],"summary":["Estimate 29.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.1 to 31.3 ETH, 2σ range 26.6 to 33.1 ETH, confidence Low, as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 10:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +4%, Clown Nose -7%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8431","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}