{"punk":8438,"name":"CryptoPunk #8438","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8438","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8438.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Mole","Mohawk Dark","Cigarette","Blue Eye Shadow"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":30.0308,"usd":68279,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.4191,"high_eth":31.7339,"low_usd":64614,"high_usd":72151},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.8938,"high_eth":33.5337,"low_usd":61146,"high_usd":76243},"sigma_log":0.0552,"multiple_of_floor":0.9882,"n1_eth":30.7154,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.6355,"usd":67380,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.045,"high_eth":31.3162,"low_usd":63764,"high_usd":71201},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.5398,"high_eth":33.0923,"low_usd":60342,"high_usd":75240},"sigma_log":0.0552,"multiple_of_floor":0.9882,"n1_eth":30.3111,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":54,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":54,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 4+","terms":[{"pct":-2.2,"beta":-0.0225,"term":"attr:Cigarette","label":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110,"weighted_sales":14.3}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 4+","seen":{"n":135,"cover1":0.6,"cover2":0.815,"bias_pct":-0.9,"within10":0.763,"within25":0.933,"MdALE_pct":4.5},"thin":false,"sigma":0.054,"selection":{"n":177,"cover1":0.712,"cover2":0.921,"bias_pct":-0.5,"within10":0.819,"within25":0.966,"MdALE_pct":3.4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":3.5,"date":"2020-09-26","block":10936130,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":33,"adjusted_eth":34.9883},{"eth":25,"date":"2021-02-23","block":11910944,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":158,"adjusted_eth":32.0406},{"eth":44.44,"date":"2021-08-06","block":12968825,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":302,"adjusted_eth":27.1991},{"eth":44.8,"date":"2021-08-10","block":12995342,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":56,"adjusted_eth":27.788},{"eth":41.99,"date":"2021-08-14","block":13025907,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":4,"adjusted_eth":29.6301}],"comparables":[{"eth":29.35,"date":"2026-01-15","punk":2127,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1751,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":57.99,"date":"2025-08-13","punk":4898,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.4446,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":47,"date":"2025-07-20","punk":1900,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8313,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38.5,"date":"2025-07-18","punk":1900,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.1682,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":44.99,"date":"2025-04-09","punk":4950,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7471,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42,"date":"2025-03-23","punk":9881,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4974,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35.98,"date":"2025-03-05","punk":4950,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.7744,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35.49,"date":"2025-03-03","punk":3512,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5816,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0225,"type_multiple":{"sales":442,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0107,"median_multiple":1.0107},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Mole","sales_12m":89},{"attribute":"Mohawk Dark","sales_12m":53},{"attribute":"Blue Eye Shadow","sales_12m":18}],"summary":["Estimate 30.0 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.4 to 31.7 ETH, 2σ range 26.9 to 33.5 ETH, confidence Low, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Cigarette -2%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8438","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}