{"punk":8445,"name":"CryptoPunk #8445","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8445","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8445.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Smile","Normal Beard","Hoodie","Big Shades"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":147.2791,"usd":356869,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":68.705,"high_eth":315.7142,"low_usd":166478,"high_usd":765001},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":32.0505,"high_eth":676.7794,"low_usd":77661,"high_usd":1639892},"sigma_log":0.7625,"multiple_of_floor":4.8463,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","basis":"daily close"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":147.2791,"usd":356869,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":68.705,"high_eth":315.7142,"low_usd":166478,"high_usd":765001},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":32.0505,"high_eth":676.7794,"low_usd":77661,"high_usd":1639892},"sigma_log":0.7625,"multiple_of_floor":4.8463,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"daily close","as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","block":null,"eth":30.39,"punk":null,"public_asks":null,"age_minutes":57,"stale":false,"label":"as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"daily close","as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","block":null,"eth":30.39,"punk":null,"public_asks":null,"age_minutes":57,"stale":false,"label":"as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":17,"beta":0.1572,"term":"attr:Smile","label":"Smile","sales_12m":21,"weighted_sales":7},{"pct":237.4,"beta":1.2162,"term":"attr:Hoodie","label":"Hoodie","sales_12m":20,"weighted_sales":7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":60,"date":"2021-02-28","block":11947112,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":190,"adjusted_eth":83.0328},{"eth":80.88,"date":"2021-03-23","block":12093261,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":189,"adjusted_eth":121.3799},{"eth":350,"date":"2021-08-26","block":13099019,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":331,"adjusted_eth":139.0938}],"comparables":[{"eth":115,"date":"2026-05-04","punk":7213,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":112.9192,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":101,"date":"2026-04-23","punk":7213,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":105.841,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":33.94,"date":"2026-10-05","punk":4341,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2746,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-09-28","punk":4341,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7853,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.374,"date":"2026-09-25","punk":4341,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.3009,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.1,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":4341,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0808,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":4341,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.987,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.98,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":5133,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.8425,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":1.5146,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Normal Beard","sales_12m":39},{"attribute":"Big Shades","sales_12m":81}],"summary":["Estimate 147 ETH (beta), 1σ range 68.7 to 316 ETH, 2σ range 32.1 to 677 ETH, confidence Low, as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Smile +17%, Hoodie +237%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8445","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}