{"punk":8458,"name":"CryptoPunk #8458","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8458","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8458.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Wild Hair","Pipe","Eye Mask"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":31.9444,"usd":72630,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.2174,"high_eth":33.7699,"low_usd":68703,"high_usd":76780},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.5838,"high_eth":35.6999,"low_usd":64989,"high_usd":81168},"sigma_log":0.0556,"multiple_of_floor":1.0511,"n1_eth":30.7154,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":31.5239,"usd":71674,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.8197,"high_eth":33.3254,"low_usd":67799,"high_usd":75770},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.2076,"high_eth":35.23,"low_usd":64134,"high_usd":80100},"sigma_log":0.0556,"multiple_of_floor":1.0511,"n1_eth":30.3111,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4,"beta":0.0392,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":42.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.06,"date":"2018-05-06","block":5564895,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":155,"adjusted_eth":23.992},{"eth":0.19,"date":"2018-09-21","block":6375005,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":26,"adjusted_eth":51.8009},{"eth":120,"date":"2021-11-01","block":13534199,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":277,"adjusted_eth":37.2933},{"eth":109.95,"date":"2021-11-15","block":13622662,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":50,"adjusted_eth":38.3419},{"eth":65,"date":"2022-12-15","block":16191204,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":305,"adjusted_eth":30.6068},{"eth":67.95,"date":"2022-12-18","block":16208287,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":227,"adjusted_eth":31.9959},{"eth":60.99,"date":"2024-03-01","block":19341606,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":131,"adjusted_eth":31.8103},{"eth":50.69,"date":"2024-03-20","block":19476540,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":40,"adjusted_eth":29.8136},{"eth":38,"date":"2024-05-01","block":19772405,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":137,"adjusted_eth":31.6561},{"eth":42.888,"date":"2025-01-09","block":21583454,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":162,"adjusted_eth":35.4523},{"eth":42.89,"date":"2025-01-16","block":21637871,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":31,"adjusted_eth":34.1276},{"eth":39.9,"date":"2025-02-14","block":21847455,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":167,"adjusted_eth":33.7166},{"eth":47.5,"date":"2025-04-08","block":22223402,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":64,"adjusted_eth":33.4553}],"comparables":[{"eth":35.6,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":8674,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.9215,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35.95,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":2721,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.2452,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.22,"date":"2026-05-25","punk":8674,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.981,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.39,"date":"2025-01-28","punk":8674,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":30.6833,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":41.99,"date":"2024-12-19","punk":9288,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4978,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42,"date":"2024-12-12","punk":9288,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.8962,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.88,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":874,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3963,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":27.09,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":2278,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.5123,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.0392,"type_multiple":{"sales":442,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0107,"median_multiple":1.0107},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Wild Hair","sales_12m":52},{"attribute":"Pipe","sales_12m":32},{"attribute":"Eye Mask","sales_12m":56}],"summary":["Estimate 31.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.2 to 33.8 ETH, 2σ range 28.6 to 35.7 ETH, confidence High, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +4%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8458","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}