{"punk":8469,"name":"CryptoPunk #8469","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8469","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8469.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Mustache","Purple Hair","Cigarette","Small Shades"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":38.1527,"usd":92447,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.8057,"high_eth":43.0588,"low_usd":81914,"high_usd":104335},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.9539,"high_eth":48.5957,"low_usd":72581,"high_usd":117751},"sigma_log":0.121,"multiple_of_floor":1.2554,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":38.1527,"usd":92447,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.8057,"high_eth":43.0588,"low_usd":81914,"high_usd":104335},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.9539,"high_eth":48.5957,"low_usd":72581,"high_usd":117751},"sigma_log":0.121,"multiple_of_floor":1.2554,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":33,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":33,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":34.99,"date":"2021-03-19","block":12071692,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":267,"adjusted_eth":50.6597},{"eth":71.44,"date":"2021-08-05","block":12966583,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":132,"adjusted_eth":48.8538}],"comparables":[{"eth":161.5,"date":"2026-09-04","punk":1839,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":159.6612,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38.95,"date":"2026-08-10","punk":3041,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.0135,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.9,"date":"2026-05-23","punk":6068,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.808,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.33,"date":"2026-05-17","punk":6068,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4631,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-04-22","punk":6068,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.5686,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.95,"date":"2026-04-17","punk":6508,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7059,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":26.69,"date":"2026-04-12","punk":6508,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2397,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.45,"date":"2026-04-11","punk":6508,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0815,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.1639,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Mustache","sales_12m":51},{"attribute":"Purple Hair","sales_12m":6},{"attribute":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110},{"attribute":"Small Shades","sales_12m":44}],"summary":["Estimate 38.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 33.8 to 43.1 ETH, 2σ range 30.0 to 48.6 ETH, confidence Low, as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 06:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8469","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}