{"punk":8492,"name":"CryptoPunk #8492","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8492","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8492.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Shadow Beard","Frumpy Hair","Small Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":34.569,"usd":83764,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.7079,"high_eth":37.6882,"low_usd":76831,"high_usd":91322},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.0836,"high_eth":41.089,"low_usd":70472,"high_usd":99562},"sigma_log":0.0864,"multiple_of_floor":1.1375,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":34.569,"usd":83764,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.7079,"high_eth":37.6882,"low_usd":76831,"high_usd":91322},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.0836,"high_eth":41.089,"low_usd":70472,"high_usd":99562},"sigma_log":0.0864,"multiple_of_floor":1.1375,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","block":26355395,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":40,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","block":26355395,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":40,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":77.77,"ask_usd":173876,"z":9.38,"z_text":"9.4σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2026-05-17T14:56:23.000Z","days_listed":172},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.076,"term":"attr:Frumpy Hair","label":"Frumpy Hair","sales_12m":59,"weighted_sales":19.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":11,"date":"2021-02-19","block":11889425,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":16,"adjusted_eth":26.4261},{"eth":12.99,"date":"2021-02-20","block":11891997,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":98,"adjusted_eth":29.1555},{"eth":35,"date":"2021-08-01","block":12942522,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":3,"adjusted_eth":32.4779},{"eth":40,"date":"2021-08-04","block":12956846,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":109,"adjusted_eth":35.245},{"eth":64,"date":"2022-03-04","block":14322849,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":139,"adjusted_eth":28.2287},{"eth":69,"date":"2022-03-05","block":14323911,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":53,"adjusted_eth":30.6566},{"eth":87,"date":"2022-06-23","block":15010419,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":221,"adjusted_eth":42.0005},{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-04-28","block":24981151,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":426,"adjusted_eth":30.016},{"eth":31.9,"date":"2026-05-01","block":25000637,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":711,"adjusted_eth":31.3228},{"eth":32.8,"date":"2026-05-10","block":25066428,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":77,"adjusted_eth":32.165}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.49,"date":"2026-09-02","punk":4255,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3201,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":45.5,"date":"2026-06-30","punk":2276,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":43.2513,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.79,"date":"2026-06-28","punk":4255,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.6612,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36.8,"date":"2025-11-05","punk":2744,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.6482,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.99,"date":"2025-11-05","punk":2744,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.3079,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2025-11-04","punk":2744,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1162,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50.69,"date":"2025-10-01","punk":9472,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.5749,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":56,"date":"2025-07-28","punk":1976,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.5272,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0652,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Shadow Beard","sales_12m":55},{"attribute":"Small Shades","sales_12m":44}],"summary":["Estimate 34.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.7 to 37.7 ETH, 2σ range 29.1 to 41.1 ETH, confidence High, as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 11:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Frumpy Hair -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8492","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}