{"punk":8500,"name":"CryptoPunk #8500","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8500","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8500.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Shadow Beard","Stringy Hair","Horned Rim Glasses"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":30.7178,"usd":74432,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.2356,"high_eth":33.4182,"low_usd":68417,"high_usd":80975},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.954,"high_eth":36.356,"low_usd":62889,"high_usd":88094},"sigma_log":0.0843,"multiple_of_floor":1.0108,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T16:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.7178,"usd":74432,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.2356,"high_eth":33.4182,"low_usd":68417,"high_usd":80975},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.954,"high_eth":36.356,"low_usd":62889,"high_usd":88094},"sigma_log":0.0843,"multiple_of_floor":1.0108,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T16:04:23.000Z","block":26356886,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 16:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T16:04:23.000Z","block":26356886,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 16:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-9.4,"beta":-0.0983,"term":"attr:Stringy Hair","label":"Stringy Hair","sales_12m":96,"weighted_sales":25.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":56.5,"date":"2022-04-29","block":14680989,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":102,"adjusted_eth":27.9193},{"eth":68.49,"date":"2022-06-19","block":14991953,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":133,"adjusted_eth":31.229},{"eth":65,"date":"2022-07-02","block":15060665,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":163,"adjusted_eth":29.709},{"eth":68.99,"date":"2022-07-06","block":15091828,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":28,"adjusted_eth":31.316},{"eth":40,"date":"2024-05-14","block":19870476,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":194,"adjusted_eth":29.8747}],"comparables":[{"eth":38.33,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":8659,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.2603,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.88,"date":"2026-06-12","punk":8659,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":45.5664,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.9,"date":"2026-05-23","punk":6068,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.808,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35.4,"date":"2026-05-19","punk":9016,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.66,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.33,"date":"2026-05-17","punk":6068,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4631,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-05-11","punk":9016,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.2898,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-04-22","punk":6068,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.5686,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-04-08","punk":8659,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.6513,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0529,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Shadow Beard","sales_12m":55},{"attribute":"Horned Rim Glasses","sales_12m":50}],"summary":["Estimate 30.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.2 to 33.4 ETH, 2σ range 26.0 to 36.4 ETH, confidence High, as of 16:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 16:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Stringy Hair -9%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8500","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}