{"punk":851,"name":"CryptoPunk #851","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/851","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/851.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Top Hat"],"attribute_count":1,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-06","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-07T00:20:34.586Z","fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"estimate":{"eth":55.7256,"usd":124590,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":39.5629,"high_eth":78.4912,"low_usd":88454,"high_usd":175489},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.0881,"high_eth":110.5573,"low_usd":62799,"high_usd":247181},"sigma_log":0.3425,"multiple_of_floor":1.8337,"n1_eth":32.3833,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 0-1","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-07T11:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":55.7256,"usd":124590,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":39.5629,"high_eth":78.4912,"low_usd":88454,"high_usd":175489},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.0881,"high_eth":110.5573,"low_usd":62799,"high_usd":247181},"sigma_log":0.3425,"multiple_of_floor":1.8337,"n1_eth":32.3833,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 0-1","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T11:04:35.000Z","block":26362557,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":11,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2235.7745744284666,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T11:04:35.000Z","block":26362557,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":11,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 0-1","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.044,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.2,"beta":0.0968,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":89},{"pct":14.8,"beta":0.1383,"term":"count1","label":"1 attribute (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":3.5},{"pct":30.2,"beta":0.2637,"term":"attr:Top Hat","label":"Top Hat","sales_12m":6,"weighted_sales":1.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 0-1","seen":{"n":16,"cover1":0.5,"cover2":0.625,"bias_pct":27.5,"within10":0.25,"within25":0.5,"MdALE_pct":27.5},"thin":true,"sigma":0.209,"selection":{"n":35,"cover1":0.714,"cover2":0.914,"bias_pct":6.6,"within10":0.571,"within25":0.714,"MdALE_pct":7.8}},"own_sales":[],"comparables":[{"eth":42,"date":"2026-08-03","punk":6648,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.5654,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":58.8889,"date":"2026-07-03","punk":7519,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":55.1675,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":130,"date":"2026-05-19","punk":8870,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":116.2655,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":38,"date":"2026-04-16","punk":9133,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":44.4332,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":41.69,"date":"2026-03-19","punk":3682,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":43.7184,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":37,"date":"2026-02-01","punk":1687,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.1879,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":85,"date":"2025-07-28","punk":7047,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":47.8538,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":70.4949,"date":"2025-05-12","punk":7047,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":47.043,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.5428,"type_multiple":{"sales":773,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0656,"median_multiple":1.0656},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 55.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 39.6 to 78.5 ETH, 2σ range 28.1 to 111 ETH, confidence Low, as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 11:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-06.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (773 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, 1 attribute (vs 3) +15%, Top Hat +30%.","In the backtest, Male 0-1 sales landed within ±7.8% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±27.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/851","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}