{"punk":8515,"name":"CryptoPunk #8515","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8515","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8515.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Big Beard","Hoodie"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":124.1932,"usd":300930,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":63.1204,"high_eth":244.3579,"low_usd":152946,"high_usd":592099},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":32.0805,"high_eth":480.7893,"low_usd":77734,"high_usd":1164992},"sigma_log":0.6768,"multiple_of_floor":4.0866,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":124.1932,"usd":300930,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":63.1204,"high_eth":244.3579,"low_usd":152946,"high_usd":592099},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":32.0805,"high_eth":480.7893,"low_usd":77734,"high_usd":1164992},"sigma_log":0.6768,"multiple_of_floor":4.0866,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","block":26352999,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":60,"stale":false,"label":"as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","block":26352999,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":60,"stale":false,"label":"as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":237.4,"beta":1.2162,"term":"attr:Hoodie","label":"Hoodie","sales_12m":20,"weighted_sales":7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.39,"date":"2017-07-06","block":3984968,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":32,"adjusted_eth":49.3838},{"eth":53,"date":"2021-03-14","block":12033814,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":16,"adjusted_eth":76.6986},{"eth":59,"date":"2021-03-23","block":12097440,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":299,"adjusted_eth":88.5437},{"eth":79,"date":"2021-04-27","block":12324435,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":195,"adjusted_eth":109.227},{"eth":156.9,"date":"2024-03-07","block":19385111,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":107,"adjusted_eth":88.3162}],"comparables":[{"eth":140,"date":"2026-08-17","punk":3298,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":132.2537,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":145,"date":"2026-10-20","punk":7779,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":140.9194,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":117,"date":"2026-08-24","punk":9799,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":109.6064,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":125,"date":"2026-08-24","punk":8359,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":117.1008,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":115,"date":"2026-08-19","punk":9799,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":108.5357,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":269,"date":"2026-08-05","punk":2311,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":257.8836,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":41,"date":"2026-08-05","punk":8123,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.3057,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":140,"date":"2026-07-03","punk":7360,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":131.1529,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":1.3441,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Big Beard","sales_12m":7}],"summary":["Estimate 124 ETH (beta), 1σ range 63.1 to 244 ETH, 2σ range 32.1 to 481 ETH, confidence Low, as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 03:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Hoodie +237%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8515","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}