{"punk":8518,"name":"CryptoPunk #8518","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8518","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8518.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Mustache","Stringy Hair","Regular Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":30.7177,"usd":69841,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.2368,"high_eth":33.4165,"low_usd":64200,"high_usd":75977},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.9562,"high_eth":36.3526,"low_usd":59015,"high_usd":82652},"sigma_log":0.0842,"multiple_of_floor":1.0108,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":30.3134,"usd":68921,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.8651,"high_eth":32.9767,"low_usd":63355,"high_usd":74977},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.6146,"high_eth":35.8741,"low_usd":58238,"high_usd":81564},"sigma_log":0.0842,"multiple_of_floor":1.0108,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-9.4,"beta":-0.0983,"term":"attr:Stringy Hair","label":"Stringy Hair","sales_12m":99,"weighted_sales":25.4}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":4.6,"date":"2021-01-11","block":11633819,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":9,"adjusted_eth":28.1539},{"eth":22,"date":"2021-02-22","block":11908721,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":50,"adjusted_eth":28.0757},{"eth":64.65,"date":"2022-11-10","block":15940171,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":429,"adjusted_eth":29.0465},{"eth":66,"date":"2022-11-16","block":15983164,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":69,"adjusted_eth":29.7645},{"eth":71.49,"date":"2023-03-18","block":16857182,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"twin-of-nominal-24h","log_index":484,"adjusted_eth":28.7899},{"eth":0,"date":"2023-03-18","block":16857208,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":156,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2024-03-08","block":19386770,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":213,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":29.97,"date":"2024-11-12","block":21173842,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":217,"adjusted_eth":30.8019}],"comparables":[{"eth":36.49,"date":"2026-10-02","punk":2529,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.1717,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.501,"date":"2026-09-27","punk":2529,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9402,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.43,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":4011,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.99,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35.8,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":2529,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.1064,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.001,"date":"2026-07-13","punk":2529,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.6508,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.9,"date":"2026-05-23","punk":6068,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4025,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.33,"date":"2026-05-17","punk":6068,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0622,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.89,"date":"2026-05-13","punk":6906,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.2437,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0526,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Mustache","sales_12m":51},{"attribute":"Regular Shades","sales_12m":47}],"summary":["Estimate 30.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.2 to 33.4 ETH, 2σ range 26.0 to 36.4 ETH, confidence High, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Stringy Hair -9%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8518","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}