{"punk":8540,"name":"CryptoPunk #8540","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8540","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8540.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Normal Beard Black","Mohawk"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":30.2182,"usd":73221,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.6954,"high_eth":32.9709,"low_usd":67108,"high_usd":79891},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.3832,"high_eth":35.9743,"low_usd":61506,"high_usd":87169},"sigma_log":0.0872,"multiple_of_floor":0.9943,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.2182,"usd":73221,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.6954,"high_eth":32.9709,"low_usd":67108,"high_usd":79891},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.3832,"high_eth":35.9743,"low_usd":61506,"high_usd":87169},"sigma_log":0.0872,"multiple_of_floor":0.9943,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","block":26352699,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":55,"stale":false,"label":"as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","block":26352699,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":55,"stale":false,"label":"as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":-7.6,"beta":-0.0788,"term":"attr:Mohawk","label":"Mohawk","sales_12m":73,"weighted_sales":15.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.89,"date":"2020-09-07","block":10815069,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":300,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":2.22,"date":"2020-09-24","block":10924588,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":60,"adjusted_eth":25.4588},{"eth":20,"date":"2021-02-21","block":11902804,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":62,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":18.8,"date":"2021-04-08","block":12201049,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":6,"adjusted_eth":29.0164},{"eth":32,"date":"2021-08-01","block":12936784,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":195,"adjusted_eth":29.694},{"eth":34.88,"date":"2021-08-01","block":12937258,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":165,"adjusted_eth":32.3665},{"eth":79.69,"date":"2021-08-25","block":13096433,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":107,"adjusted_eth":30.7528},{"eth":84.99,"date":"2021-08-27","block":13106540,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":24,"adjusted_eth":28.0744},{"eth":53,"date":"2024-03-10","block":19407733,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":136,"adjusted_eth":31.588}],"comparables":[{"eth":36.5,"date":"2026-07-21","punk":3606,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.6636,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":58.499,"date":"2025-07-25","punk":7820,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.1947,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":43,"date":"2024-11-22","punk":9179,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.3372,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":9585,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9696,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":5394,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.3289,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":28.5,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":9132,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3964,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.35,"date":"2026-10-23","punk":8427,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.7725,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":35.9,"date":"2026-10-09","punk":8159,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.646,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.0693,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Normal Beard Black","sales_12m":21}],"summary":["Estimate 30.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 27.7 to 33.0 ETH, 2σ range 25.4 to 36.0 ETH, confidence Low, as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 02:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Mohawk -8%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8540","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}