{"punk":8549,"name":"CryptoPunk #8549","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8549","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8549.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Muttonchops"],"attribute_count":1,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":42.3398,"usd":96265,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.0288,"high_eth":54.2754,"low_usd":75095,"high_usd":123402},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.7655,"high_eth":69.5757,"low_usd":58581,"high_usd":158189},"sigma_log":0.2483,"multiple_of_floor":1.3932,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 0-1","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":41.7825,"usd":94998,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.5941,"high_eth":53.561,"low_usd":74107,"high_usd":121778},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.4264,"high_eth":68.6599,"low_usd":57810,"high_usd":156107},"sigma_log":0.2483,"multiple_of_floor":1.3932,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 0-1","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 0-1","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":19.8,"beta":0.1805,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":25.9},{"pct":15,"beta":0.1394,"term":"count1","label":"1 attribute (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":3.6},{"pct":-9.3,"beta":-0.0973,"term":"attr:Muttonchops","label":"Muttonchops","sales_12m":48,"weighted_sales":15.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 0-1","seen":{"n":16,"cover1":0.5,"cover2":0.625,"bias_pct":27.5,"within10":0.25,"within25":0.5,"MdALE_pct":27.5},"thin":true,"sigma":0.209,"selection":{"n":35,"cover1":0.714,"cover2":0.914,"bias_pct":6.6,"within10":0.571,"within25":0.714,"MdALE_pct":7.8}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.5,"date":"2019-07-13","block":8143836,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":34,"adjusted_eth":44.1029}],"comparables":[{"eth":30,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":3391,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5857,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.5,"date":"2026-10-25","punk":9404,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.8271,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":36,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":2235,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0463,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.42,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":2647,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9808,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.85,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":3797,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8775,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":28.16,"date":"2026-09-09","punk":2167,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.2353,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-09-05","punk":3797,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.49,"date":"2026-09-05","punk":7377,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":31.49,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.2683,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 42.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 33.0 to 54.3 ETH, 2σ range 25.8 to 69.6 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%, 1 attribute (vs 3) +15%, Muttonchops -9%.","In the backtest, Male 0-1 sales landed within ±7.8% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±27.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8549","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}