{"punk":855,"name":"CryptoPunk #855","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/855","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/855.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Bandana","Eye Patch"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":37.8761,"usd":86116,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.6949,"high_eth":42.5761,"low_usd":76610,"high_usd":96802},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.9753,"high_eth":47.8592,"low_usd":68153,"high_usd":108814},"sigma_log":0.117,"multiple_of_floor":1.2463,"n1_eth":30.7154,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":37.3776,"usd":84983,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.2514,"high_eth":42.0157,"low_usd":75601,"high_usd":95528},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.5808,"high_eth":47.2293,"low_usd":67256,"high_usd":107382},"sigma_log":0.117,"multiple_of_floor":1.2463,"n1_eth":30.3111,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":37,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":37,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":{"ask_eth":126,"ask_usd":305308,"z":10.27,"z_text":"10.3σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2022-07-10T22:39:58.000Z","days_listed":1579},"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":23.3,"beta":0.2096,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":14.9}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":24.99,"date":"2021-02-21","block":11902913,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":62,"adjusted_eth":37.4725},{"eth":28,"date":"2021-04-11","block":12220660,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":75,"adjusted_eth":42.5175},{"eth":74.8,"date":"2021-08-23","block":13081867,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":73,"adjusted_eth":33.145},{"eth":99.9,"date":"2021-10-20","block":13456453,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":48,"adjusted_eth":31.2083}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.33,"date":"2026-10-09","punk":1895,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7424,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.63,"date":"2026-10-05","punk":7916,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5811,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":1452,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8721,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-09-03","punk":1895,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7462,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.41,"date":"2026-08-20","punk":4711,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.99,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.4,"date":"2026-08-09","punk":1895,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1076,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-07-21","punk":2154,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9272,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":78,"date":"2026-07-03","punk":4654,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":72.1091,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.2096,"type_multiple":{"sales":442,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0107,"median_multiple":1.0107},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Bandana","sales_12m":63},{"attribute":"Eye Patch","sales_12m":74}],"summary":["Estimate 37.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 33.7 to 42.6 ETH, 2σ range 30.0 to 47.9 ETH, confidence High, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +23%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/855","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}