{"punk":8565,"name":"CryptoPunk #8565","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8565","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8565.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Blonde Short","Clown Eyes Blue"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-06","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-07T00:20:34.586Z","fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"estimate":{"eth":29.7757,"usd":66572,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.21,"high_eth":31.4283,"low_usd":63071,"high_usd":70267},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.7267,"high_eth":33.1725,"low_usd":59755,"high_usd":74166},"sigma_log":0.054,"multiple_of_floor":0.9798,"n1_eth":30.6589,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-07T02:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":29.7757,"usd":66572,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.21,"high_eth":31.4283,"low_usd":63071,"high_usd":70267},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.7267,"high_eth":33.1725,"low_usd":59755,"high_usd":74166},"sigma_log":0.054,"multiple_of_floor":0.9798,"n1_eth":30.6589,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T02:04:35.000Z","block":26359875,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":19,"stale":false,"label":"as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2235.7745744284666,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T02:04:35.000Z","block":26359875,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":19,"stale":false,"label":"as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.4,"public_asks":405,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":-2.9,"beta":-0.0292,"term":"attr:Blonde Short","label":"Blonde Short","sales_12m":22,"weighted_sales":9.4}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":25.25,"date":"2021-05-03","block":12360772,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":79,"adjusted_eth":37.5782},{"eth":25.75,"date":"2021-05-04","block":12365342,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":263,"adjusted_eth":40.1304},{"eth":31.9,"date":"2021-08-01","block":12936795,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":13,"adjusted_eth":29.6013},{"eth":79,"date":"2021-08-23","block":13082122,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":50,"adjusted_eth":35.473},{"eth":68,"date":"2022-03-30","block":14489065,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":26,"adjusted_eth":29.653},{"eth":70,"date":"2022-03-31","block":14495331,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":495,"adjusted_eth":30.8797},{"eth":78,"date":"2022-07-15","block":15147898,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":532,"adjusted_eth":30.0243},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-07-27","block":15226889,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":533,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-07-27","block":15226889,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":545,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":22.79,"date":"2024-08-20","block":20566365,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":251,"adjusted_eth":23.9816},{"eth":50,"date":"2025-07-25","block":22994443,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":937,"adjusted_eth":29.2268},{"eth":49.99,"date":"2025-07-28","block":23015657,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":273,"adjusted_eth":28.1437},{"eth":53.6,"date":"2025-07-31","block":23039428,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":377,"adjusted_eth":31.3251},{"eth":54.65,"date":"2025-08-09","block":23105859,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":270,"adjusted_eth":30.2131},{"eth":26.2,"date":"2025-12-16","block":24027523,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":77,"adjusted_eth":29.4906},{"eth":28.8949,"date":"2026-01-29","block":24342710,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":350,"adjusted_eth":30.9196}],"comparables":[{"eth":31.27,"date":"2026-10-24","punk":4140,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9542,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.201,"date":"2026-10-07","punk":4140,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7534,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.25,"date":"2026-07-03","punk":7056,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2752,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-06-22","punk":7056,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9963,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.4,"date":"2025-11-14","punk":7056,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2713,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":49.99,"date":"2025-07-20","punk":3560,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.1523,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":41.48,"date":"2025-01-26","punk":8428,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.821,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39,"date":"2024-12-19","punk":3560,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.6451,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0292,"type_multiple":{"sales":439,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0088,"median_multiple":1.0088},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Clown Eyes Blue","sales_12m":65}],"summary":["Estimate 29.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.2 to 31.4 ETH, 2σ range 26.7 to 33.2 ETH, confidence Low, as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 02:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-06.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (439 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Blonde Short -3%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8565","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}