{"punk":8573,"name":"CryptoPunk #8573","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8573","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8573.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Goat","Do-rag"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":32.2341,"usd":73288,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.7548,"high_eth":34.9198,"low_usd":67651,"high_usd":79395},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.4663,"high_eth":37.8293,"low_usd":62448,"high_usd":86010},"sigma_log":0.08,"multiple_of_floor":1.0607,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":31.8098,"usd":72324,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.3632,"high_eth":34.4602,"low_usd":66761,"high_usd":78350},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.1048,"high_eth":37.3314,"low_usd":61626,"high_usd":84878},"sigma_log":0.08,"multiple_of_floor":1.0607,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":61,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":61,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":67},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":102.4},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0761,"term":"attr:Goat","label":"Goat","sales_12m":38,"weighted_sales":16.8},{"pct":-5.5,"beta":-0.0565,"term":"attr:Do-rag","label":"Do-rag","sales_12m":52,"weighted_sales":18}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":22,"date":"2021-02-22","block":11908285,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":190,"adjusted_eth":28.0757},{"eth":21,"date":"2021-04-28","block":12330963,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":40,"adjusted_eth":29.3062},{"eth":11.97,"date":"2021-05-13","block":12422771,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":66,"adjusted_eth":24.7573},{"eth":14.5,"date":"2021-05-14","block":12429804,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":371,"adjusted_eth":28.0552}],"comparables":[{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-02","punk":2224,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.9991,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.64,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":2224,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.6743,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31,"date":"2025-11-14","punk":4360,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.5181,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.95,"date":"2025-07-23","punk":2557,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1192,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40.99,"date":"2025-07-20","punk":2557,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":26.0167,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":51.99,"date":"2025-03-24","punk":3067,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.301,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38.9949,"date":"2025-03-10","punk":3067,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.7874,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36.9,"date":"2025-03-05","punk":3067,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5102,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0044,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 32.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.8 to 34.9 ETH, 2σ range 27.5 to 37.8 ETH, confidence High, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Goat -7%, Do-rag -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8573","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}