{"punk":8605,"name":"CryptoPunk #8605","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8605","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8605.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Blonde Short","Cigarette"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":30.297,"usd":73412,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.7511,"high_eth":31.9261,"low_usd":69666,"high_usd":77360},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.284,"high_eth":33.6427,"low_usd":66111,"high_usd":81519},"sigma_log":0.0524,"multiple_of_floor":0.9969,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.297,"usd":73412,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.7511,"high_eth":31.9261,"low_usd":69666,"high_usd":77360},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.284,"high_eth":33.6427,"low_usd":66111,"high_usd":81519},"sigma_log":0.0524,"multiple_of_floor":0.9969,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":39,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":39,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":405,"punk":6263}},"listing":{"ask_eth":77,"ask_usd":172155,"z":17.8,"z_text":"17.8σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-08-09T21:00:47.000Z","days_listed":453},"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4,"beta":0.0392,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":42.1},{"pct":-2.9,"beta":-0.0292,"term":"attr:Blonde Short","label":"Blonde Short","sales_12m":22,"weighted_sales":9.4},{"pct":-2.2,"beta":-0.0225,"term":"attr:Cigarette","label":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110,"weighted_sales":14.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":27.5,"date":"2021-02-24","block":11918960,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":266,"adjusted_eth":37.9875},{"eth":39.99,"date":"2021-08-01","block":12936784,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":229,"adjusted_eth":37.1083},{"eth":55,"date":"2021-08-05","block":12967056,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":271,"adjusted_eth":37.6114},{"eth":55.9,"date":"2025-08-09","block":23106045,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":275,"adjusted_eth":30.9041}],"comparables":[{"eth":38.5,"date":"2024-12-15","punk":2222,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3979,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.88,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":874,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8017,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":27.09,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":2278,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8926,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.27,"date":"2026-10-24","punk":4140,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9542,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29,"date":"2026-10-20","punk":2994,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.1839,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":36,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":3859,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.4058,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.5,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":4075,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2301,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.201,"date":"2026-10-07","punk":4140,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7534,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.0125,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 30.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.8 to 31.9 ETH, 2σ range 27.3 to 33.6 ETH, confidence Low, as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 10:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +4%, Blonde Short -3%, Cigarette -2%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8605","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}