{"punk":8622,"name":"CryptoPunk #8622","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8622","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8622.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Smile","Regular Shades"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":42.1049,"usd":95731,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":36.1024,"high_eth":49.1052,"low_usd":82083,"high_usd":111647},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.9557,"high_eth":57.2696,"low_usd":70382,"high_usd":130210},"sigma_log":0.1538,"multiple_of_floor":1.3855,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":41.5507,"usd":94471,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.6272,"high_eth":48.4589,"low_usd":81003,"high_usd":110177},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.5483,"high_eth":56.5158,"low_usd":69455,"high_usd":128496},"sigma_log":0.1538,"multiple_of_floor":1.3855,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":169.42,"ask_usd":377859,"z":9.05,"z_text":"9.1σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2022-10-08T08:27:11.000Z","days_listed":1489},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10,"beta":0.0957,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":89.3},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":102.4},{"pct":17,"beta":0.1572,"term":"attr:Smile","label":"Smile","sales_12m":21,"weighted_sales":7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":28.5,"date":"2021-03-01","block":11955047,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":222,"adjusted_eth":37.9873},{"eth":19.99,"date":"2021-04-06","block":12185419,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":68,"adjusted_eth":39.9667},{"eth":0,"date":"2021-08-15","block":13028368,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"below-half-floor","log_index":298,"adjusted_eth":0}],"comparables":[{"eth":84.99,"date":"2025-04-26","punk":7425,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":57.9548,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.5,"date":"2026-10-25","punk":9404,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.8271,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-10-03","punk":9872,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":31.8172,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":45,"date":"2026-10-02","punk":6489,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":40.9079,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":36.49,"date":"2026-10-02","punk":2529,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.1717,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":38.91,"date":"2026-09-30","punk":5329,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.3664,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.501,"date":"2026-09-27","punk":2529,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9402,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.2,"date":"2026-09-25","punk":7591,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.5538,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.2627,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Regular Shades","sales_12m":47}],"summary":["Estimate 42.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 36.1 to 49.1 ETH, 2σ range 31.0 to 57.3 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Smile +17%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8622","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}