{"punk":863,"name":"CryptoPunk #863","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/863","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/863.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Black Lipstick"],"attribute_count":1,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":37.8295,"usd":91664,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.9431,"high_eth":47.793,"low_usd":72555,"high_usd":115806},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":23.7007,"high_eth":60.3807,"low_usd":57429,"high_usd":146307},"sigma_log":0.2338,"multiple_of_floor":1.2448,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Female 0-1","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","basis":"daily close"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":37.8295,"usd":91664,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.9431,"high_eth":47.793,"low_usd":72555,"high_usd":115806},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":23.7007,"high_eth":60.3807,"low_usd":57429,"high_usd":146307},"sigma_log":0.2338,"multiple_of_floor":1.2448,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Female 0-1","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"daily close","as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","block":null,"eth":30.39,"punk":null,"public_asks":null,"age_minutes":56,"stale":false,"label":"as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"daily close","as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","block":null,"eth":30.39,"punk":null,"public_asks":null,"age_minutes":56,"stale":false,"label":"as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 0-1","terms":[{"pct":23.3,"beta":0.2095,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":14.7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 0-1","seen":{"n":18,"cover1":0.778,"cover2":1,"bias_pct":13.4,"within10":0.222,"within25":0.778,"MdALE_pct":19.5},"thin":true,"sigma":0.209,"selection":{"n":28,"cover1":0.821,"cover2":0.964,"bias_pct":2.3,"within10":0.607,"within25":0.857,"MdALE_pct":9}},"own_sales":[],"comparables":[{"eth":33.8,"date":"2026-11-03","punk":1721,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.7889,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":28.284,"date":"2026-10-31","punk":5040,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.2654,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":27.75,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":5040,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5965,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-10-27","punk":5084,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8983,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-10-26","punk":4381,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8883,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.27,"date":"2026-10-24","punk":4140,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9542,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":28.73,"date":"2026-10-19","punk":5084,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.4863,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-10-18","punk":8955,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7285,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.2095,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Black Lipstick","sales_12m":95}],"summary":["Estimate 37.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.9 to 47.8 ETH, 2σ range 23.7 to 60.4 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +23%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 0-1 sales landed within ±9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±19.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/863","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}