{"punk":8648,"name":"CryptoPunk #8648","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8648","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8648.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Mole","Mohawk Thin","Eye Patch"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":33.7874,"usd":76820,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.1028,"high_eth":36.7038,"low_usd":70716,"high_usd":83451},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.6314,"high_eth":39.872,"low_usd":65097,"high_usd":90654},"sigma_log":0.0828,"multiple_of_floor":1.1118,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":33.3427,"usd":75809,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.6934,"high_eth":36.2207,"low_usd":69785,"high_usd":82352},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.2545,"high_eth":39.3472,"low_usd":64240,"high_usd":89461},"sigma_log":0.0828,"multiple_of_floor":1.1118,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":53,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":53,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":19.8,"beta":0.1805,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":25.9},{"pct":-6.7,"beta":-0.0698,"term":"attr:Mole","label":"Mole","sales_12m":89,"weighted_sales":22.7},{"pct":-10.7,"beta":-0.1137,"term":"attr:Mohawk Thin","label":"Mohawk Thin","sales_12m":51,"weighted_sales":11.1}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":22.75,"date":"2021-04-30","block":12344132,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":90,"adjusted_eth":33.12},{"eth":75,"date":"2022-06-19","block":14991534,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":61,"adjusted_eth":33.7472},{"eth":81.5,"date":"2022-08-10","block":15313714,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":204,"adjusted_eth":32.7288},{"eth":57,"date":"2024-02-19","block":19262363,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":205,"adjusted_eth":30.0533},{"eth":38.45,"date":"2024-04-29","block":19758851,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":159,"adjusted_eth":32.0399},{"eth":36.69,"date":"2024-05-13","block":19862499,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":318,"adjusted_eth":27.5152},{"eth":40.8,"date":"2024-05-18","block":19897212,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":8,"adjusted_eth":32.413},{"eth":38,"date":"2025-01-08","block":21580723,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":195,"adjusted_eth":30.8089},{"eth":39.99,"date":"2025-01-14","block":21624687,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":27,"adjusted_eth":29.3227},{"eth":39.9,"date":"2025-01-18","block":21653368,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":99,"adjusted_eth":32.1235}],"comparables":[{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":5559,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5063,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.65,"date":"2026-09-17","punk":5866,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9496,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.501,"date":"2026-09-05","punk":5866,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.501,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.58,"date":"2026-05-06","punk":1012,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.5389,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.89,"date":"2026-04-22","punk":5866,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0004,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.58,"date":"2026-03-24","punk":1012,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1326,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.79,"date":"2026-03-21","punk":2124,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3058,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.4,"date":"2026-03-15","punk":1012,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4141,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0426,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Eye Patch","sales_12m":74}],"summary":["Estimate 33.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.1 to 36.7 ETH, 2σ range 28.6 to 39.9 ETH, confidence High, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%, Mole -7%, Mohawk Thin -11%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8648","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}