{"punk":8730,"name":"CryptoPunk #8730","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8730","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8730.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Normal Beard","Earring","Stringy Hair"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":29.9858,"usd":72658,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.4383,"high_eth":32.7699,"low_usd":66485,"high_usd":79404},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.1072,"high_eth":35.8124,"low_usd":60837,"high_usd":86776},"sigma_log":0.0888,"multiple_of_floor":0.9867,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":29.9858,"usd":72658,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.4383,"high_eth":32.7699,"low_usd":66485,"high_usd":79404},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.1072,"high_eth":35.8124,"low_usd":60837,"high_usd":86776},"sigma_log":0.0888,"multiple_of_floor":0.9867,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":45,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":45,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6},{"pct":-9.4,"beta":-0.0983,"term":"attr:Stringy Hair","label":"Stringy Hair","sales_12m":96,"weighted_sales":25.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.79,"date":"2020-06-29","block":10357864,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":59,"adjusted_eth":24.2506},{"eth":1.8,"date":"2020-09-18","block":10889114,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":33,"adjusted_eth":28.0523},{"eth":1.94,"date":"2020-09-20","block":10895820,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":122,"adjusted_eth":27.4217},{"eth":0,"date":"2021-07-30","block":12923949,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":314,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":24.49,"date":"2024-08-20","block":20569949,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":141,"adjusted_eth":25.7705},{"eth":43,"date":"2025-04-09","block":22233280,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":510,"adjusted_eth":30.7475},{"eth":43.23,"date":"2025-04-24","block":22337164,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":231,"adjusted_eth":30.4817},{"eth":26.41,"date":"2025-12-15","block":24019954,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":289,"adjusted_eth":29.6162}],"comparables":[{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":9585,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9696,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40,"date":"2026-10-29","punk":4202,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.9259,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-10-16","punk":8871,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3703,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.43,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":3235,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9867,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":4755,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9431,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":8871,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.39,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.98,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":5133,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.8425,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.553,"date":"2026-09-14","punk":4755,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.1457,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.077,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Normal Beard","sales_12m":39}],"summary":["Estimate 30.0 ETH (beta), 1σ range 27.4 to 32.8 ETH, 2σ range 25.1 to 35.8 ETH, confidence High, as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 04:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Earring -2%, Stringy Hair -9%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8730","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}