{"punk":8751,"name":"CryptoPunk #8751","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8751","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8751.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Normal Beard","Do-rag"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":30.9001,"usd":70255,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.4295,"high_eth":33.5856,"low_usd":64638,"high_usd":76361},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.1563,"high_eth":36.5044,"low_usd":59470,"high_usd":82997},"sigma_log":0.0833,"multiple_of_floor":1.0168,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":30.4934,"usd":69331,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.0553,"high_eth":33.1435,"low_usd":63787,"high_usd":75356},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.812,"high_eth":36.0239,"low_usd":58687,"high_usd":81905},"sigma_log":0.0833,"multiple_of_floor":1.0168,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":58,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":58,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":102.4},{"pct":-5.5,"beta":-0.0565,"term":"attr:Do-rag","label":"Do-rag","sales_12m":52,"weighted_sales":18}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":4.69,"date":"2021-01-04","block":11589053,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":116,"adjusted_eth":28.2436},{"eth":5,"date":"2021-01-06","block":11599240,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":62,"adjusted_eth":30.0501},{"eth":4.2,"date":"2021-01-22","block":11707983,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":99,"adjusted_eth":31.6477},{"eth":6.5,"date":"2021-02-13","block":11850879,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":15,"adjusted_eth":27.0743},{"eth":14.75,"date":"2021-02-21","block":11902233,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":129,"adjusted_eth":22.1176},{"eth":35.7,"date":"2021-08-05","block":12963236,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":95,"adjusted_eth":24.0919},{"eth":46.67,"date":"2021-08-12","block":13012288,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"twin-of-nominal-24h","log_index":297,"adjusted_eth":30.4268},{"eth":0,"date":"2021-08-12","block":13012340,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":83,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2021-08-12","block":13012340,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":87,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":47.99,"date":"2021-08-20","block":13063623,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":7,"adjusted_eth":27.6826},{"eth":53.99,"date":"2021-08-23","block":13081137,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":79,"adjusted_eth":23.9238},{"eth":31.98,"date":"2024-11-13","block":21182020,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":446,"adjusted_eth":29.1602},{"eth":34.89,"date":"2024-11-15","block":21190852,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":241,"adjusted_eth":27.5428},{"eth":47.95,"date":"2025-05-23","block":22544813,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":493,"adjusted_eth":30.6745}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.99,"date":"2026-05-05","punk":3624,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.9357,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29,"date":"2026-02-06","punk":3624,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.1263,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2025-11-05","punk":9567,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.1217,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46.3,"date":"2025-04-27","punk":9567,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":31.2031,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":41,"date":"2025-03-05","punk":9567,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.7891,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40,"date":"2026-10-29","punk":4202,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.3741,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.01,"date":"2026-10-09","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4376,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.67,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.001,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.0467,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Normal Beard","sales_12m":40}],"summary":["Estimate 30.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.4 to 33.6 ETH, 2σ range 26.2 to 36.5 ETH, confidence High, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Do-rag -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8751","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}