{"punk":8761,"name":"CryptoPunk #8761","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8761","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8761.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Front Beard Dark","Cap","Cigarette","Regular Shades"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":35.3757,"usd":85718,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.0302,"high_eth":39.0707,"low_usd":77612,"high_usd":94672},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.0011,"high_eth":43.1516,"low_usd":70272,"high_usd":104560},"sigma_log":0.0993,"multiple_of_floor":1.1641,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":35.3757,"usd":85718,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.0302,"high_eth":39.0707,"low_usd":77612,"high_usd":94672},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.0011,"high_eth":43.1516,"low_usd":70272,"high_usd":104560},"sigma_log":0.0993,"multiple_of_floor":1.1641,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":10,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":10,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0756,"term":"attr:Front Beard Dark","label":"Front Beard Dark","sales_12m":35,"weighted_sales":13.3}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":19.9,"date":"2021-06-08","block":12591652,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":169,"adjusted_eth":43.9826},{"eth":25,"date":"2021-06-17","block":12653775,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":255,"adjusted_eth":49.6569},{"eth":53.43,"date":"2023-09-06","block":18075058,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":41,"adjusted_eth":33.8349}],"comparables":[{"eth":48.39,"date":"2025-06-26","punk":3843,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.707,"shared_attributes":4},{"eth":50.42,"date":"2025-06-12","punk":3843,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.8321,"shared_attributes":4},{"eth":41,"date":"2025-03-13","punk":3843,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.4561,"shared_attributes":4},{"eth":45.5,"date":"2025-01-17","punk":3843,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.3938,"shared_attributes":4},{"eth":31.88,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":9065,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2527,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.86,"date":"2026-08-31","punk":9065,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.3165,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.22,"date":"2026-07-03","punk":5450,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1839,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.75,"date":"2026-05-20","punk":4371,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":31.0786,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0883,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Cap","sales_12m":38},{"attribute":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110},{"attribute":"Regular Shades","sales_12m":47}],"summary":["Estimate 35.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.0 to 39.1 ETH, 2σ range 29.0 to 43.2 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 04:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Front Beard Dark -7%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8761","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}