{"punk":8803,"name":"CryptoPunk #8803","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8803","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8803.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Frown","Chinstrap","Cowboy Hat"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":69.096,"usd":167425,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":46.9115,"high_eth":101.7716,"low_usd":113670,"high_usd":246601},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.8498,"high_eth":149.8994,"low_usd":77175,"high_usd":363219},"sigma_log":0.3872,"multiple_of_floor":2.2736,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":69.096,"usd":167425,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":46.9115,"high_eth":101.7716,"low_usd":113670,"high_usd":246601},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.8498,"high_eth":149.8994,"low_usd":77175,"high_usd":363219},"sigma_log":0.3872,"multiple_of_floor":2.2736,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":26,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":26,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-5.3,"beta":-0.054,"term":"attr:Chinstrap","label":"Chinstrap","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":19.3},{"pct":95.5,"beta":0.6705,"term":"attr:Cowboy Hat","label":"Cowboy Hat","sales_12m":10,"weighted_sales":2.9}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.1,"date":"2017-11-22","block":4599201,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":7,"adjusted_eth":33.7667},{"eth":1.15,"date":"2020-01-03","block":9204049,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":5,"adjusted_eth":79.4284},{"eth":2,"date":"2020-06-22","block":10312641,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":117,"adjusted_eth":53.7876},{"eth":6.5,"date":"2021-01-07","block":11609684,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":242,"adjusted_eth":42.1183},{"eth":8.88,"date":"2021-02-02","block":11777105,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":60,"adjusted_eth":50.631},{"eth":12,"date":"2021-02-12","block":11843963,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":207,"adjusted_eth":60.2777},{"eth":33,"date":"2021-06-28","block":12724204,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":74,"adjusted_eth":62.6794},{"eth":200,"date":"2021-08-20","block":13063729,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":179,"adjusted_eth":116.9071}],"comparables":[{"eth":27.99,"date":"2024-11-11","punk":7115,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8442,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":2303,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.9783,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":40.4,"date":"2026-11-01","punk":7440,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.3734,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":60,"date":"2026-10-21","punk":6066,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":58.3115,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29,"date":"2026-10-20","punk":7711,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.1839,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.4,"date":"2026-10-15","punk":5098,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8114,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.49,"date":"2026-10-12","punk":4064,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.39,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":40,"date":"2026-10-12","punk":3758,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.6027,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.7578,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Frown","sales_12m":40}],"summary":["Estimate 69.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 46.9 to 102 ETH, 2σ range 31.8 to 150 ETH, confidence Low, as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 12:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Chinstrap -5%, Cowboy Hat +96%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8803","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}