{"punk":8811,"name":"CryptoPunk #8811","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8811","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8811.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Buck Teeth","Handlebars","Vampire Hair"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":31.3312,"usd":75918,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.8734,"high_eth":33.9983,"low_usd":69963,"high_usd":82381},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.6083,"high_eth":36.8925,"low_usd":64474,"high_usd":89394},"sigma_log":0.0817,"multiple_of_floor":1.031,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":31.3312,"usd":75918,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.8734,"high_eth":33.9983,"low_usd":69963,"high_usd":82381},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.6083,"high_eth":36.8925,"low_usd":64474,"high_usd":89394},"sigma_log":0.0817,"multiple_of_floor":1.031,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":5,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":5,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":269.69,"ask_usd":602966,"z":26.35,"z_text":"26.3σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2022-10-08T08:24:11.000Z","days_listed":1489},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-6.1,"beta":-0.0634,"term":"attr:Handlebars","label":"Handlebars","sales_12m":32,"weighted_sales":11.7},{"pct":-10.5,"beta":-0.1109,"term":"attr:Vampire Hair","label":"Vampire Hair","sales_12m":18,"weighted_sales":6.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":61,"date":"2021-04-08","block":12201320,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":183,"adjusted_eth":94.1488},{"eth":0,"date":"2021-08-15","block":13028369,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"below-half-floor","log_index":66,"adjusted_eth":0}],"comparables":[{"eth":30.25,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":4282,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2301,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.26,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":9216,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.3401,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.75,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":4282,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7296,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-10-29","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4444,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-14","punk":3378,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0508,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":2004,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.7983,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":2996,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.39,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.99,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":9541,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.3212,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.0331,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Buck Teeth","sales_12m":3}],"summary":["Estimate 31.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.9 to 34.0 ETH, 2σ range 26.6 to 36.9 ETH, confidence Low, as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 05:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Handlebars -6%, Vampire Hair -11%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8811","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}